ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Momentum continues to swing swiftly in favor of the bulls. The stock market is now pushing deep into overbought territory just three weeks after it was fashionable again to talk about a double dip recession. Last week, the S&P 500 broke a downtrend I assumed would hold for at least a few more weeks. It … Read more
With tongue reaching for the cheek last week, I declared the market both extremely undervalued and very overvalued, guessing that “as earnings season grinds on, I suspect the near-predictable pattern of post-earnings fades will finally wear thin, giving way to more bullish behavior.” I did not expect the turn to happen so clearly and dramatically … Read more
I spoke a day to soon on the bearish downtrend on XLI, the SPDRs Select Sector Industrial ETF. A healthy 3% one-day gain sent the ETF hurtling over resistance and into breakout territory. The next line of resistance is the June high or the “left shoulder” formed in late May/early June, depending on your perspective. … Read more
Day-to-day, Mr. Market’s mood seems to swing dramatically up and down with little consistent rhyme or reason. The neat rationalizations of the bulls one day give way to the equally neat rationalizations of the bears the next day. For example, the market is very undervalued because of record low Treasury bill rates, highly stimulative monetary … Read more
Trade the Oversold Bounce – Stocks, Futures and Options Traders (Dr.Duru) Profits from oversold periods start either from entering the market long on the first oversold day (aggressive) and/or from waiting for VIX to increase at least 20 percent from the first oversold day or entering the market the first day after the oversold period … Read more
The British pound continues its steady ascent from 14-month lows versus the U.S. dollar. This feat is not as remarkable as it could have been given the dollar’s steady descent against all major currencies since June. However, both fundamental and technical developments continue to favor even higher levels. Three weeks after dropping my bearish bias … Read more
Excitement over earnings almost trumped technicals today. The S&P 500 tipped over and then faded back ever so slightly from its 50-day moving average (DMA). Earnings news typically trumps technicals, but I was pretty convinced looming overhead resistance would hold firm no matter then news given the weak buying volume coming into today. Buying volume … Read more
Almost on schedule, the pendulum has swung back to “sell” on the S&P 500. The technical setup on the index shows extremely overbought conditions with buying volume falling just as the index reaches for overhead resistance (see chart below). Combine these conditions with the launch of earnings season, a new round of U.S. economic releases … Read more
It took a little patience, but the bounce from oversold conditions delivered in spectacular fashion on Wednesday with a 3.1% jump. The setup this time was a “bullish hammer” that formed ahead of the U.S. unemployment report last Friday. This is how I described the setup at the time: “The good news is that the … Read more
If the summer ends up trading in a range, it will have a wider berth than I had expected. This week the S&P 500 broke both closing and intra-day lows for 2010 and confirmed an unfolding downtrend. The index is down 8 of the last 9 days. The good news is that the S&P 500 … Read more