ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Ever since I speculated that the market had finally reached a (near-term) top in January, I have been tracking signals confirming this top. Every once in a while, I stumble upon a significant stock that flashes a contrary sign and gives me pause. Cummins, Inc. (CMI) is a company with such a stock. Cummins, Inc. … Read more
The drama with Toyota (TM) has intensified this week with sharp and skeptical Congressional scrutiny. I have been impressed at how (relatively) well Toyota’s stock has held up through the negative news flow. As Toyota’s president Akio Toyoda pleaded for mercy on Wednesday – “My name is on every car…You have my personal commitment that … Read more
Toyota’s stock first broke down in late November when it plunged below the 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since 2007. Unlike 2007, this technical break led to a sharp rally and not a sustained sell-off. (At the time, I suggested a counter-trend rally was likely, especially if the yen weakened; but I … Read more
Looking for signs of life in the commercial real-estate (CRE) business has now become an earnings season ritual for me. If construction activity serves as a leading indicator of CRE’s future health, then Fastenal’s report on fourth quarter and annual earnings demonstrates once again that CRE continues to deteriorate, not improve. Fastenal (FAST) reported “…continued … Read more
Fastenal (FAST) is a $5.8B market cap industrial company that supplies components and parts for construction and manufacturing. FAST reported earnings yesterday that again confirmed a recurring theme of weakness in non-residential construction. This area has often been called “the next shoe to drop” that will presage further weakness in the economy. This drop has … Read more