ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary Talk of an imminent recession has almost reached a feverish pitch. Accordingly, it is easy to find fears and expectations for an imminent housing crash. The crash watch is morbid as it relies on desperate home owners falling behind on mortgage payments and/or burdened by sinking equity to exit the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Get used to it. The economy continues to unfold in unexpected ways. An exceptionally strong July jobs report threw some cold water on the breathless expectations on Wall Street for a recession. As one journalist commented on Marketplace, today’s economic context is a strange one with so many talking about a recession … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market overcame a serious setback with an impressive rebound. The rally started before Jay Powell announced the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on monetary policy and pushed higher afterward. The market seemed determine to launch as the opening gap up immediately erased the previous day’s loss. Buyers never looked back and … Read more
“…on the consumer side of our business, we’re seeing an increase in bad debt to slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels as well as extended cash collection cycles.” AT&T, Inc. (T) CEO John Stankey on Q2 2022 Results – Earnings Call Transcript (Seeking Alpha) This observation caught some attention because it sounds like the early warning … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The synchronized breakout looked impressive, but it already hit a serious setback. Friday’s downbeat day was relatively mild on a percentage loss basis, but the context was important. The economic setback came from the July update for the S&P Global Flash US PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index™) Composite Output Index. The headline says … Read more
That sigh of disappointment was Wall Street looking for signs of a weakening labor market in the June jobs report. Instead, that report showed job creation remains robust in the economy. Not only did the unemployment rate remain steady at a low 3.6% with the economy adding 372,000 jobs (far more than “consensus” expectations), the … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A month ago, housing-related stocks managed to stabilize despite deteriorating data. Reality caught up in June with a fresh round of selling in the stocks of home builders. A surprising jump in new home sales provide some relief for an otherwise on-going din of negative housing news. The National Association … Read more
Redfin Corporation (RDFN) joined a slowly growing list of companies announcing layoffs. In a heartfelt blog post, CEO Glenn Kelman explained “I’m sorry we can’t keep our commitment to you. With May demand 17% below expectations, we don’t have enough work for our agents and support staff, and fewer sales leaves us with less money … Read more
It is easy to forget that the months going into the COVID-19 pandemic were filled with fears of a recession. In response to mounting economic and political pressures, the Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, reversed course on the Fed’s 3-year effort to slowly normalize monetary policy with what he called a “mid-cycle” rate adjustment. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Good employment news came in the form of the May jobs report. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6% while the U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs. Both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate are essentially back to the pre-pandemic levels of February, 2020. The labor force participation rate remains 1.1% … Read more