ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
China’s sugar rush may be ending | James Saft China is an economy addicted to investment, a sort of fun house mirror of the U.S.’s addiction to consumption, with an astounding 93 percent of GDP growth in 2009 attributable to investment. That’s a strategy that worked well for years, but China’s response to the global … Read more
California governor Jerry Brown surprised the state by announcing $6.6B in additional tax revenues that were not expected in the last tax year. In the context of Silicon Valley’s frenetic scramble for new hires, perhaps these revenues would be much less surprising. The job market is hot for engineers, start-ups are getting funded (and acquired), … Read more
Originally posted on “Inflation Watch“… Nightly Business Report produced a short video segment describing China’s inflation woes (transcript included) called “China’s Inflation Battle.” The commentator identifies China’s RMB¥ 4 trillion stimulus program (around $585B USD at the time) as the original source of the inflation and takes us to Pengshui, 1000 miles from Beijing, to … Read more
Dangerous Views of Volatility: Pay attention to the VIX, but don't just follow the crowd – Barrons.com The market remains schizophrenic. One day, stock prices tumble because Standard & Poor's questions the credit rating of the United States, and investors panic and sell and fret, and the front pages of many newspapers are apocalyptic. The … Read more
It seems the Federal Reserve may maintain some excuse to keep printing money. Hundreds of billions printed in the name of economic recovery and inflation can be seen almost everywhere except the housing market, one of two of the Fed’s main targets – the other being employment. (See “Inflation Watch” for running highlights of stories … Read more
Several months ago, I had the opportunity to “talk shop” with a truck driver who specializes household moves. I will call him “Bob.” When Bob discovered that I write a blog dealing with trading and investing in financial markets, he asked me for my forecast for the economy. I did not have anything good to … Read more
The risk of holding TBT, the Pro Shares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, rose significantly last week. The sudden surge in oil prices in response to the rebellion in Libya has put the double-dip recession back into play and once again lodged it into the frontal lobes of market players. Recession fears bring fresh affinity for … Read more
Buyers are again lifting the stock market from its intra-day lows and providing some potential clues on where to draw the bull/bear lines from a technical perspective. The case for a bullish setup is relatively strong: Three days of high volume selling is washing out sellers. 50-day moving average (DMA) essentially successfully retested, leaving primary … Read more
The stock market has already started cooling off from overbought conditions, but the weakening euro, increasing bond yields, and widening spreads have markets on edge yet again. After listening to a Planet Money segment on the financial problems in Spain called “A Theme Park, An Airport And The Next Banking Crisis” by Chana Joffe-Walt, I … Read more
Last week, I claimed that the market is not yet overbought and that any corrections in the short-term will most likely be shallow. Without some specific and new catalyst, traders and investors, especially the ones who missed this latest rally, will treat pullbacks as golden buying opportunities. Moreover, I noted how, as expected, many analysts … Read more