ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I keep hearing the ominous statistic that no sitting U.S. President has ever won an election with unemployment over 7.2%. I finally decided to look more closely at the numbers after I read another version of this statistic that said no U.S. President since the 1930s has ever won an election with unemployment over 7.2%. … Read more
On June 15, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King spoke at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London at the Mansion House. The speech covered very familiar themes for King and the Bank of England. King first acknowledged the squeeze on the economy in the United Kingdom: “The challenge … Read more
On Friday, PBS Newshour aired a fascinating piece called “‘Sesame Street’ Tells You How to Get to Sunnier Days Financially.” The title is quite deceptive given the valuable and revealing information and research described in this piece. Newshour provides background by citing some earlier studies on the limited financial education of Americans, our extremely low … Read more
China’s sugar rush may be ending | James Saft China is an economy addicted to investment, a sort of fun house mirror of the U.S.’s addiction to consumption, with an astounding 93 percent of GDP growth in 2009 attributable to investment. That’s a strategy that worked well for years, but China’s response to the global … Read more
California governor Jerry Brown surprised the state by announcing $6.6B in additional tax revenues that were not expected in the last tax year. In the context of Silicon Valley’s frenetic scramble for new hires, perhaps these revenues would be much less surprising. The job market is hot for engineers, start-ups are getting funded (and acquired), … Read more
Originally posted on “Inflation Watch“… Nightly Business Report produced a short video segment describing China’s inflation woes (transcript included) called “China’s Inflation Battle.” The commentator identifies China’s RMB¥ 4 trillion stimulus program (around $585B USD at the time) as the original source of the inflation and takes us to Pengshui, 1000 miles from Beijing, to … Read more
Dangerous Views of Volatility: Pay attention to the VIX, but don't just follow the crowd – Barrons.com The market remains schizophrenic. One day, stock prices tumble because Standard & Poor's questions the credit rating of the United States, and investors panic and sell and fret, and the front pages of many newspapers are apocalyptic. The … Read more
It seems the Federal Reserve may maintain some excuse to keep printing money. Hundreds of billions printed in the name of economic recovery and inflation can be seen almost everywhere except the housing market, one of two of the Fed’s main targets – the other being employment. (See “Inflation Watch” for running highlights of stories … Read more
Several months ago, I had the opportunity to “talk shop” with a truck driver who specializes household moves. I will call him “Bob.” When Bob discovered that I write a blog dealing with trading and investing in financial markets, he asked me for my forecast for the economy. I did not have anything good to … Read more
The risk of holding TBT, the Pro Shares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, rose significantly last week. The sudden surge in oil prices in response to the rebellion in Libya has put the double-dip recession back into play and once again lodged it into the frontal lobes of market players. Recession fears bring fresh affinity for … Read more