Estimating A 12-Month Range of 0.86 to 1.02 for the Australian Vs. U.S. Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 3, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In the past week, we have seen two different views on the Australian dollar (FXA) from official government sources. Last week, the Australian Government Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) … Read more

A Record Iron Ore Shipment As Prices and the Australian Dollar Plunge

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Port Hedland Port Authority along the northern coast of Western Australia reported on June 10th surprising news on an iron ore shipment: {snip} The Port does not report the value … Read more

A Crescendo Looms for the Australian Dollar Even As Traders Cast About for New Forex Leader

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 6, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Monday night (June 4th, Tuesday morning in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave its cash rate steady at 2.75%. The statement contained no new news and … Read more

Plunging Iron Ore Underlines Coming Monetary Policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 2, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} …Iron prices have plunged almost as severely as they did last August as steel rebar prices have fallen. From Reuters on May 31st: {snip} These price declines would seem to … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes Suggest Rate Cuts Are About The Exchange Rate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 21, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} In Monday’s minutes (Tuesday Australia time) of the May 7th policy meeting, the RBA provided no direct smoking gun to explain what I called at the time a mystifying rate … Read more

Australian Dollar Breaks Down

When I last wrote about the Australian dollar (FXA), I targeted a retest of the 2012 low as one of two points to exit my short position on AUD/USD. The test at 0.96 happened last Thursday, May 24, and as AUD/USD printed an obligatory bounce from that support, I exited. The support held firm until … Read more

Latest China GDP Figures Set Up Next Buying Opportunity

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 15, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) When it comes to the Australian dollar (FXA), traders have to stay nimble and on their toes. Just two days ago in “Poor Employment Report Only Slows Australian Dollar’s Breakout,” I … Read more

A Mystifying Rate Cut By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tonight (morning of May 7th in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rate to 2.75% whereas the consensus assumed that rates would stay steady at 3.0%. While the … Read more

Already Time to Shift Into Neutral on the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 12, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Next week on May 6th (May 7th in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make its next monetary policy decision. The Australian dollar has shown marked weakness going into … Read more

Poor Employment Report Only Slows Australian Dollar’s Breakout

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 12, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, we learned that the Australian trade balance for February was much better than expected, -178M AUD versus expectations for -1B AUD and -1.2B AUD for January. Additionally, retail sales … Read more