Above the 40 (November 15, 2017) – A Stock Market That Wants to Drop

AT40 = 41.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.1 (as high as 14.5) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The narrowing rally in the stock market has officially resolved into a sell-off. The downward slide is … Read more

Above the 40 (November 10, 2017) – A Flash Resolution to Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.3 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary It was by the slimmest of margins, but the S&P 500 (SPY) finally ended a week with a loss. After 8 … Read more

Trading Cocoa: The September Confirmation Of A Bottom

Congratulations to any of you who stuck by the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) and accumulated over the course of 2017 as cocoa prices slowly but surely carved out a bottom. Looking back, it seems September was a key turning point in the flavor of the trading. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The chart above shows how … Read more

With Inflation Low, the Reserve Bank of Australia Pushes on the Australian Dollar

In mid-July, the Australian dollar (FXA) surged higher after a hawkish interpretation of the RBA minutes. Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), tried to walk the market off its enthusiasm. The pause was temporary. By the early September RBA meeting, AUD/USD hit a 2+ year high, albeit partially because of … Read more

Republican Tax Plan Does Not Worry KB Home

The angst may already be fading away. Last week, I chronicled the carnage across the stocks of home builders that erupted in response to the Republican plan for tax reform that includes a reduction in the cap on the mortgage interest deduction. The sell-off that likely had roots in the extreme displeasure emanating from the … Read more