ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: Was the second trading day of February the peak for the S&P 500? After a 1.4% gain nearly finished reversing the losses from last August’s Jackson Hole, the index lost momentum. While the index churned for the following 2 weeks, trashed stocks from 2022 continued to soar. Even that momentum seemed to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market this month has teetered on a seesaw alternating from resistance to support. The rapid back and forth makes it too easy to overinterpret both ends of these swings. However, a slow and steady convergence of resistance and support levels portends a potential big move ahead. Active and high volume … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: This stock market is one bullish bear market. A bear market perhaps cannot get more bullish than the current market. Since the October lows, the various indices have shown a general upside bias. As much time that I have spent the last several weeks looking for excuses to get bearish, the market … Read more
My idea for a trade on the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) report seemed like a great idea last month. Up to that point, the market experienced sharp swings based on the directional gap between the actual inflation readings and expected inflation. I used the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” to generate an approximate trading model. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week ended the overbought period with a relatively strong report on initial claims for unemployment. The stock market – still freshly stung with the memory of the previous week‘s exceptionally strong jobs report – sold off sharply in response to the good economic news. A stubbornly resilient labor market continues to … Read more
The race is on in generative AI (artificial intelligence). Chat GPT introduced this natural language algorithm to a mass audience in November, 2022, and we love it so far. With a market proof at hand, companies are rolling out commercialization efforts. These conversational knowledge engines will find their way into more and more products and … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I laid out the case for bracing for what 2023 would bring even as “faint signs of a bottoming for sentiment have started to appear.” The latest housing data and industry expectations suggest that the market is well-braced for 2023. The signs of bottoming … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: On cue, the stock market groaned at fresh signs of economic strength, this time from another strong jobs report. The recession Wall Street wants is on hold yet again. The bullish intent that charged out of the wake of the Federal Reserve’s last statement on monetary policy made a sharp u-turn. The … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market oozed with bullish intent as it pushed its way through the latest Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy. While Jerome Powell made sure to stick to the script and introduced no surprises to the market, he was surprisingly reluctant to underline the Fed’s hawkishness. The market made a mile … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market had quite a bullish week especially considering another Federal Reserve meeting is right around the corner. The week started with a push into overbought conditions and buyers proceeded to slowly steepen overbought conditions the rest of the week. I am quite surprised by this bullish anticipation ahead of the … Read more