As Unemployment Finally Appears to Crest, Monetary Policy Reaches A Critical Juncture

Good (or not as bad as expected) economic news has typically garnered selling in the U.S. dollar and buying in the stock market. On Friday, the good news that November’s monthly change in U.S. non-farm payrolls came in essentially flat sent the S&P 500 soaring as high as 1.7%. However, the dollar index also soared, … Read more

Wishing Warsh Good Luck With Pre-emptive Tightening of Monetary Policy

On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor wrote an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal titled “The Fed’s Job Is Only Half Over.” In this piece, he suggested that while “…longer-term inflation expectations are stable, and economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal-funds rate for an extended period…prudent risk management indicates … Read more

No New News on Negative Rates from Bank of England’s Meeting Minutes

This morning, the Bank of England released its minutes from the September meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. From my reading, it contained no new news on the prospects for negative interest rates. The “relief” from the minutes has so far lifted the pound against the euro, the U.S. dollar, and even the yen. I … Read more