How to Measure A CPI Surprise and Its Impact on Stocks

surprise (Credit: Surprise!!! 4/365 by Benson Kua from Flickr)

Stock Market and Inflation: Understanding the Impact of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report Soon after the Federal Reserve started tightening monetary policy, the stock market started acting like the Fed will see evidence that inflation is actually not a problem and thus plateau or pivot on rate hikes. Yet, the Fed said no in … Read more

Solid Housing Forecast from Freddie Mac Clears Way for Fed Rate Hikes

I doubted the ability of Freddie Mac to forecast the housing market once. Never again. In the immediate wake of the pandemic, Freddie Mac insisted that housing would recover rapidly. I was highly skeptical. Freddie Mac turned out to be too conservative! Fast forward two years and Freddie Mac has delivered a surprisingly solid housing … Read more