T2108 Update (August 7, 2012) – Critical Juncture: Overbought, 2012 Highs, and the Australian Dollar

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 76.4% (third day of … Read more

Apple’s Important Macro and Forex Calls and Likely Post-Earnings Recovery

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Like all companies with extensive international presence, Apple took a hit from the strong dollar (UUP)… {snip} Apple appears to expect continued strength in the U.S. dollar as the company … Read more

The Australian Dollar Clings to Breakout As Current Catalysts Support Upward Trend

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On July 30th, the Australian dollar made a clean breakout against the U.S. dollar (FXA). At that time, I stated I was finally ready to reposition for what could be an … Read more

Chart Review: A Clean Breakout for the Australian Dollar Means Time To Change Positions

The Australian dollar is now at 4-month highs versus the U.S. dollar (FXA). In what now looks like a clean breakout, the AUD/USD currency pair has hurdled over the latest resistance level which was the April high. Source: FreeStockCharts.com While I continue to believe the Australian dollar has a big sell-off ahead of it once … Read more

The Australian Dollar Confirms the S&P 500 Breakout

(This is an addendum to the last T2108 Update that presented the case for an imminent, extended, overbought rally for the S&P 500). On Friday, July 27, the S&P 500 broke out in a rally that continues in grinding fashion from the June lows. In parallel, the Australian dollar (FXA) has also rallied from its … Read more