Black Friday Trade Gets More Bullish Even As Fiscal Cliff Looms

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The rally from oversold conditions in the S&P 500 (SPY) from the November lows has now nearly recovered post-election losses. On the way up, we got to see whether Black Friday … Read more

Quantifying the Significance of Black Friday Trading

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The day after Thanksgiving, affectionately known as Black Friday, is an odd day of trading. For whatever reason, the exchanges open for business for part of the day even as most people … Read more

T2108 Update (November 29, 2012) – Resistance

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

The Positive Trade When Incumbent Presidents Run For Re-Election Rarely Lasts

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In early, July I quantified the very unique tendency of the S&P 500 (SPY) to deliver strongly positive returns in the three months (between July-end and October-end) before a Presidential election … Read more

Recent Examples of Intraday Relationship Between the Australian Dollar and the S&P 500

In “How To Estimate Intraday Moves For The S&P 500 Using The Australian Dollar“, I quantified the relationship between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500 on an intraday basis. However, I did not provide any charts demonstrating the relationships. The chart below tracks the intraday relationships between SPY as a proxy for the S&P … Read more