ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
For the past few months, I pestered my youngest brother to write a review of his cogent 2009 analysis of the housing market. In that post, he predicted housing would bottom in April, 2010 and as late as 2013 in a worst case scenario. He has finally produced the follow-up, and I post it below. … Read more
As fears mount that the United States is dipping into a double-dip recession and headed down the road of deflationary Japan, Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke tip-toed, tap-danced, and downright side-stepped these landmines during his testimony to the Senate today. The market still did not like what it heard, sold off nearly the instant the Semiannual … Read more
Many homebuilder stocks, like Toll Brothers (TOL), went parabolic in April. The homebuilder index, XHB, hit 18-month highs at the time. Since flaming out, TOL is down 26%, and the homebuilder’s ETF, XHB, has sunk 23% in two months. This action further confirms the principle that parabolic moves more than likely signal the coming end … Read more
Toll Brothers (TOL) has disappointed market participants with its earnings reports over the past 12 months. For example, December’s earnings generated a one-day drop over 7% that finished eliminating a strong gap up in response to November’s preliminary report. However, February’s earnings barely generated a yawn. A week later, the stock resumed an uptrend that … Read more
PBS Newshour aired a segment on Tuesday’s show called “Mortgage Defaults” as part of its “Making Sense” financial series (click here for video, segment aired 25:45 to 35:00). I highly recommend that anyone interested in real estate watch this segment. Newshour picked three example Floridians who are dealing with defaults on their mortgages: A restaurant … Read more