T2108 Update (August 29, 2012) – Pavlovian Market Tap Dances Between Breakout and Breakdown

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

A Hypothesis for the Connection Between the Australian Dollar and the S&P 500

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) A reader recently asked the following questions in response to my last piece on the relationship between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500 (“A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls … Read more

Fed Minutes Revive Pressure On the Japanese Yen

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting seem to suggest that members are starting to coalesce around Janet Yellen’s analysis that monetary policy should be more accomodative (see “Yellen’s Case … Read more

British Pound Breaks Out After Uneventful Summer Olympics In London

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 27, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) After three months bouncing up and down in a wide range, the British pound (FXB) is finally breaking out against the U.S. dollar (UUP). This follows a very uneventful Summer Olympics … Read more

A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls While S&P 500 Jumps

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have written multiple times about the usefulness of the Australian dollar (FXA) as an early indicator or confirming signal for directional trading on the S&P 500 (SPY). For an example, … Read more