ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Wall Street Journal printed a trifecta of articles to day that seem to cry out for the dollar to lift its head out of the sludge. Coincidentally (or not), the dollar rallied for its biggest one-day gain in almost three weeks. In “Uncertainty May Help Dollar“, analysts remind us that the economic recovery remains … Read more
The British pound has taken some sharp twists and turns since first hitting 4-month lows against the U.S. dollar on September 28. I have been steadfast in my bearishness against the pound since mid-September, but I have found it necessary to dance in and out of positions given the persistent decline in the dollar against … Read more
Moments like these remind me how swiftly the tides can change in foreign exchange. The minutes from the Bank of England’s meeting in October showed that all members now support leaving quantitative easing at its current level of 175 billion pounds. This unified support marks a change in particular for Governor Mervyn King who earlier … Read more
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its exceptionally low interest rate of 0.25% and reiterated its commitment to hold rates this low until the end of the second quarter of 2010. This move stands in stark contrast to the rate increase implemented by Canada’s similarly resource-rich “G20 cousin” Australia just two weeks ago. … Read more
Small comments can spark big moves in the currency market. Yesterday afternoon, Chris Giles of the Financial Times posted a summary of his interview with the Bank of England’s head of markets and quantitative easing Paul Fisher. Fisher rejected the notion that the Bank of England has made a conscious effort to direct future exchange … Read more
Watching the U.S. dollar try to rally is like watching a wet noodle trying to stand up…in a downpour. The latest relief rally that I expected in the U.S. dollar came and went with a whimper. A week of lackluster meandering upward has ended with three days of selling, punctuated by the Reserve Bank of … Read more
I suggested on Friday that old mercantile forces would start to gripe if the Japanese yen continued to rise too far. Sure enough, Reuters reports this morning that the Japanese Finance Minister, Hirohisa Fujii, is backing away from earlier remarks he has made essentially welcoming a stronger currency. Fuji even went so far as to … Read more
Today has been a wild day in the financial markets, and I almost hesitate to jot down my thoughts before the close of trading. However, I will be shutting things down to get the weekend started as soon as possible, so I am writing now while thoughts remain fresh. There is no one theme I … Read more
“That rebalancing of the UK economy that I have been talking about for about 10 years, is very necessary. I think the fall in the exchange rate that we have seen will be helpful to that process but there’s no doubt that what we need to see now is a shift of resources into net … Read more
This morning, the Bank of England released its minutes from the September meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. From my reading, it contained no new news on the prospects for negative interest rates. The “relief” from the minutes has so far lifted the pound against the euro, the U.S. dollar, and even the yen. I … Read more