ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A recent article in Business Insider by Jesse Felder from TheFelderReport.com raised a loud alarm bell over rising margin debt levels in the U.S. stock market (see “A closely followed indicator says a 20% drop in stocks could be coming soon“). The article used the following chart as part of an analysis concluding that a … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 9, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Bank of Canada decided once again to hold its target overnight interest rate at 0.5%. The overall message from the statement on monetary policy is that economic developments are unfolding … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) As expected, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged in its latest decision on monetary policy (September 9, 2015). Also as expected, the Bank did not interpret recent GDP data as … Read more
A year ago, the Bank of Canada (BOC) delivered the first of two rate cut surprises for the year. So with oil still cratering ever lower, I can understand why the market seemed braced for yet another rate cut last week. Instead, the BOC not only stood still on rates, but also it expressed an … Read more
Ever since I recommended shorting the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), I have been keen to look for opportunities to short individual retail names. A huge exception was Wal-Mart (WMT) which is currently making an encouraging bottoming move after a long 2015 of nearly non-stop selling. I noted Best Buy (BBY) as a prime target … Read more
August 27, 2003. This was the last trading day where USD/CAD traded above the 1.40 mark. Until now. The Canadian dollar (FXC) slipped hard and fast in overnight trading to hit 1.408 for USD/CAD at the time of writing. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Canada / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Lost in the flurry of economic and monetary news of the week was the Bank of Canada’s December decision on interest rates. The Bank kept its target rate at 0.5%, and … Read more
On Friday, December 4, 2015, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) slammed the oil patch by adjourning without an agreement to put a cap on production. This quote from a Bloomberg article probably sums up the implications best: “‘It means more OPEC oil next year,’ Jamie Webster, a Washington-based oil analyst for IHS … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 26, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two weeks ago, markets appeared ready to price in a first Fed rate cut way out into June, 2016 (essentially neverland). The U.S. dollar index (UUP) sat at one of … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On October 21st, the Bank of Canada issued its latest statement on monetary policy. While the Bank of Canada (BoC) left interest rates unchanged, it slightly lowered its growth forecast over … Read more