An Uneven Recovery from the Interest Rate Blues

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 17, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its monetary policy decision meeting earlier this month. It contains some great detail on the RBA’s assessment of global financial conditions. Of particular interest to me was the RBA’s observations on the Federal Reserve’s recent discussion of policy normalization and the market’s subsequent reactions… {snip}

The S&P 500 (SPY) has now fully recovered from this sell-off with new all-time closing highs, seemingly affirming the fact that the Fed said nothing new about the direction and conditions for monetary policy. The U.S. stock market stands tall in its interest rate resilience. The recovery from the interest rate blues has been uneven and perhaps speaks volumes on where the vulnerabilities exist if rates manage to continue climbing.

{snip}

Only time will tell the full significance of the ability of any given stock, ETF, or sector to recover from interest rate blues. Of the group mentioned above, only the S&P 500 was strong going into the interest rate blues. {snip}

{snip}

Related charts…

The performance of the S&P 500 (red) has sharply diverged from the 10-Year Treasury yield (blue)
The performance of the S&P 500 (red) has sharply diverged from the 10-Year Treasury yield (blue)

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

Weekly view shows the general trading range for the U.S. dollar index for the last 18 months
Weekly view shows the general trading range for the U.S. dollar index for the last 18 months

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

The Australian stock market traded in negative territory during the sell-off
The Australian stock market traded in negative territory during the sell-off
The Australian dollar has plunged for almost three straight months versus the U.S. dollar
The Australian dollar has plunged for almost three straight months versus the U.S. dollar

The 2013 downtrend in EEM remains well intact
The 2013 downtrend in EEM remains well intact

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

Taiwanese stocks have out-performed the general EEM ETF
Taiwanese stocks have out-performed the general EEM ETF

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

Be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 17, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: long EEM puts, net short Australian dollar

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.