CEO Sam Altman launched OpenAI’s DevDay 2025 with a series of demos showing off the generative AI platform’s latest capabilities. I was particularly intrigued by demonstrations of features developed in partnership with several companies including Figma (FIG), Spotify (SPOT), Hubspot (HUBS), Coursera (COUR), and Zillow Group (ZG) (links go to the relevant section of the recorded demo; the first three feature Altman). FIG stood out among this group as the only stock that enjoyed a notable post-demo gain; the stock gained 7.4% and rallied two more days to its latest price peak. That gain has now completely vanished. Only an all-time low is left to provide support for the stock. If FIG breaks that all-time low, a trip back to the IPO price of $33 comes into play.
What Next for Figma?
Figma currently has a market cap of $27.3B. At its IPO price of $33, FIG had a value of $17.1B. Thus a break of the all-time closing low of $50.38 could easily open the floodgates back to the IPO price. In a slightly less pessimistic scenario, FIG holds support at the $20B valuation Adobe (ADBE) was willing to spend to acquire Figma (equivalent to a $38.69 stock price) a little over three years ago. A very optimistic scenario grows the stock price with FIG’s revenue growth from 2022 through 2024 for a stock price of $69.86….right around the price FIG last peaked.
Valuation is a problem for Figma. The stock trades at 13.5x sales and a P/E of 116 while analysts expect earnings to decline year-over-year 29% in 2026 and increase just 25% in 2027. Earnings growth accelerates in 2028 to 53% in 2028. In other words, FIG’s sky-high valuation means that the stock will experience wild swings as sentiment shifts with the whims of chart technicals and the latest short-term news. The OpenAI swing is a perfect example of just such an ephemeral swing. In other words, until FIG “grows” into its valuation more in-line with its fundamental growth prospects, the stock can take on any price at any time with short-lived rallies along the way.
The Mixed Story of the Remaining OpenAI DevDay Stocks
While FIG completed a roundtrip from the OpenAI DevDay, Zillow Group (ZG) made its own roundtrip in the opposite direction. Zillow went into the event burdened by competitive pressures and heavy regulatory scrutiny. Thus, investors and traders may not have cared about the OpenAI shout out. ZG actually lost 3.8% that day. The stock has finally reversed all those losses after trading as low as a 3-month low. I am still not interested in buying ZG. The stock looks likely to stall at resistance from its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below).
I finally committed to Spotify (SPOT) over the summer. The stock has been a roller coaster to nowhere since then. On OpenAI DevDay, SPOT first rallied but ran into stiff resistance at its 50DMA. The stock has remained capped by its 50DMA, and now 20DMA (the dashed line), since then. At the current rate of trading SPOT could test 200DMA support in the coming month or so.
HUBS gained 2.6% on OpenAI DevDay and rallied as high as 11.3% before fading. The stock drifted lower from there and looked set to print a new 2-year low before rallying to a post DevDay high. Overall, HUBS is stuck in a downtrend that started with a sharp post-earnings fade in February.
I bailed on Coursera, Inc (COUR) shortly after its poor post-earnings performance in February. Since then, the stock recovered first by dropping to an all-time low and next doubling. The stock drifter lower from that last peak, and I jumped back into the stock around 50DMA support. That support held most of September until a fresh sell-off took COUR into DevDay. On that day COUR enjoyed an 8.4% gain before settling for a 0.4% gain at the close. COUR is now staring down its next earnings report on Thursday evening.
Conclusion
While multi-billion deals with OpenAI for product and development many quarters away generate outsized gains in stocks, partnerships in the here and now are clearly mere blips on the radar of traders. Without revenue numbers or deal sizes, the market cannot let its imagination run wild free for long. Still, FIG’s outsized gain in the midst of the OpenAI intrigues me. If the stock can hold its ground at recent lows, I will likely trade it for at least one more bounce before the company’s next earnings announcement.
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long ADBE, long COUR