(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 3, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.)
When I last wrote about the Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN), I announced I was finally selling my core position and moving to a new shorter-term trading orientation. My decision happened to occur just as CORN’s last rally topped out. The ETF has sold off 16% since then. The sell-off has potentially climaxed with the latest acreage and grain stocks reports from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Source: FreeStockCharts.com
Both reports from the USDA were bearish for corn prices as acres planted and stocks increased significantly over levels from a year ago.
The acreage report showed that acreage planted for corn increased 7% over last year. {snip}
The grain stocks report showed the stock of corn increased 6% year-over-year to 4.72B bushels.
It is tempting to buy into a bottom here. After all, a year ago, CORN soared and peaked on the heels of a very bullish set of crop reports. So perhaps CORN has reached peaked bearishness here. However, recall the tepid response to the USDA’s higher forecast for corn prices in its last monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. {snip}
So, I do not expect a sustainable bottom for CORN here. I think there remains more room for selling as the market switches from an overly bullish position to a more sober one, perhaps even bearish one. {snip}
Until a new and definitive bullish catalyst arrives for CORN, I will remain on the sidelines.
Full disclosure: no positions
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 3, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.)