Continued Momentum in Residential Construction Employment Doesn’t Stop Slide in Home Builder Shares

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.)

After employment in residential construction put on a surprisingly strong showing amidst a generally dismal January employment report, I decided to keep closer tabs on this important indicator of health in the home building industry. As expected, the February jobs report did not feature blistering month-over-month growth again for residential construction, but year-over-year growth remains strong (0.5% and 8.4%, respectively, off seasonally adjusted numbers). This growth still outpaces overall job growth in the economy. I still expect at some point soon the strong year-over-year growth numbers will start cooling off.

{snip}


ITB's breakout is in precarious shape with a retest of the 50DMA looming
ITB’s breakout is in precarious shape with a retest of the 50DMA looming

Perhaps the 3 days of selling in ITB even as the general market flatlined was in anticipation of today’s downgrades. {snip}

In parallel with ITB’s small dip before Monday was an on-going dip in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) that looks like the completion/confirmation of a double-top for the year. {snip}


TLT hits a ceiling
TLT hits a ceiling

Source for charts: FreeStockCharts.com

TLT is apparently peaking for now in the context of an on-going stabilization of rates that is yet to show the upward pressure that seems very likely to come in 2014.


Rates have more or less stabilized since July, 2013
Rates have more or less stabilized since July, 2013

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

ITB’s last positive catalyst was unexpectedly strong January new home sales data reported on February 26th: 9.6% above December’s revised estimate and a 2.2% gain year-over-year. The supply of new homes for sale was a paltry 4.7 months of supply. ITB has rolled back those gains. Such a reversal is always a yellow flag, but for now, I am treating it as another buy-the-dip opportunity for select positions.

{snip}


Shares short on ITB have completely reversed a near doubling in 2013
Shares short on ITB have completely reversed a near doubling in 2013

Source: Schaeffer’s Investment Research

Be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: long ITB call options, long DHI shares

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