Bear Market: Nikkei-Style

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.)

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Notably, this retracement erases almost all of the stock market gains from the Bank of Japan’s announcement of aggressive monetary policy in early April called “Introduction of the “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing.” {snip}


Nikkei retraces its way to erasing almost all its post-easing gains
Nikkei retraces its way to erasing almost all its post-easing gains

This could have been a unique buying opportunity, except the Japanese yen is on the move again and it is now warning of danger ahead.


Major breakdown for the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen
Major breakdown for the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen

The British pound also breaks down versus the yen
The British pound also breaks down versus the yen

The yen (FXY) suddenly looks like it is starting to transition out of its cycle of persistent devaluation. {snip} The yen’s renewed vigor could get exaggerated by the “need” to fill the vacuum of a rapidly weakening dollar. On Thursday, the dollar index experienced a very rare one-day plunge of over 1%.


Dollar index plunges to 200-day moving average ahead of June job's report. Confirms firm resistance from its QE2 price.
Dollar index plunges to 200-day moving average ahead of June job’s report. Confirms firm resistance from its QE2 price.

Source for stock and forex charts: FreeStockCharts.com

Daily Change in Dollar Index From June 10, 2011 to June 6, 2013
Daily Change in Dollar Index From June 10, 2011 to June 6, 2013

Source for data: FreeStockCharts.com

The increasing volatility in the Japanese yen is an echo of the burst of volatility that hit the Japanese bond market starting right around the time Japan announced excellent GDP numbers May 15th. {snip}

Japan’s latest GDP results seemed to vindicate and confirm the the power of “Abenomics.” {snip}

These economic signs should be encouraging and should support an eventual turn-around in the Japanese stock market. However, if currency markets rekindle their love affair with a strong Japanese yen, the bear market Nikkei-style may hang around a lot longer.

{snip}

Be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: net long Japanese yen

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