(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 30, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)
The residential housing industry received more positive data on August 29, 2012.
First, the latest Federal Reserve’s beige book further confirmed the stronger price trends shown in the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) data:
“Real estate markets were generally said to be improving. On the residential side, all 12 Districts cited increases in home sales, home prices, or housing construction.”
Specifically:
{snip}
I took particular note that only two districts expressed concerns over the fresh arrival of shadow inventory. Moreover, a lack of inventory is actually helping to push prices upward in some districts. This expressed inventory shortage is corroborated by claims from the National Association of Realtors in its latest report on pending home sales (for July):
{snip}
In this same report, the NAR reports an important milestone for pending home sales:
“Pending home sales rose in July to the highest level in over two years…which was shortly before the closing deadline for the home buyer tax credit.”
All these data points add more evidence that my long anticipated bottom for housing in 2013 is indeed underway…{snip}
With caution in mind, I decided to read one of the many pieces out there titled to strike fear into the hearts of anyone otherwise interested in buying a home or investing in real estate. This one comes from Agustino Fontevecchia in Forbes, titled “What Housing Recovery? Distressed Sales Still High, Shadow Inventory Massive.”
Fontevecchia’s core issue is the commonly cited massive numbers on underwater mortgages and shadow inventories:
{snip}
Source: FreeStockCharts.com
Be careful out there!
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 30, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)
Full disclosure: long TBT