CSX Anticipates A Bottom in Natural Gas Prices

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Last week, I wrote about the opportunities arising from the crash in natural gas prices. On the morning of January 24, CSX Corporation, a railroad company, provided timely commentary on natural gas during its earnings conference call. In the transcript provided by Seeking Alpha, CSX’s CEO made the following claim (emphasis mine):

“…gas prices, in our view, are nearing the end of where the bottom of the gas market is…you’re seeing the rig count start to do several things: One, they’re changing. They’re actually going down, particularly in the Marcellus Shale. Two, a lot of the drill rigging counts are moving from Eastern Pennsylvania over to Western Pennsylvania to go for the Utica oil reserves. So we see a stabilizing in the natural gas prices.”

{snip}


UNG gets a rare sharp bounce. Downtrend still well intact.
UNG gets a rare sharp bounce. Downtrend still well intact.


SJT bounces sharply off the bottom but buying volume is much lighter than selling volume.
SJT bounces sharply off the bottom but buying volume is much lighter than selling volume.

I am probably a little early in adding to my SJT position, but at a 9.4% yield, I am willing to take on the extra risk. I have not yet decided whether to allocate a third (and final) tranche to this position.

{snip}

Low natural gas prices have also been a boon to chemical companies. CSX indicated that these low prices have made the U.S. chemical industry “very competitive on a worldwide basis.”

The stock market responded to CSX’s earnings report by sending the stock 3.7% lower. The very next day, CSX gained it almost all back.


CSX has recovered its post-earnings losses but still needs to break free of  the resistance provided by its 200-day moving average (DMA)
CSX has recovered its post-earnings losses but still needs to break free of the resistance provided by its 200-day moving average (DMA)


Be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: long SJT

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