The Appeal of the Canadian Dollar Continues to Recede

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 6, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.)

It is official…or at least technically official. Canada is in recession albeit by the slimmest of margins. {snip}


GDP growth falls off a cliff in Canada
GDP growth falls off a cliff in Canada

Source: Statistics Canada

Canada’s GDP is a story of two worlds. {snip}


Canada's GDP is a tale of two worlds in the second quarter
Canada’s GDP is a tale of two worlds in the second quarter

Source: Statistics Canada

The strong, positive contribution of household final consumption is good for the current health of the economy. The plunge in gross fixed capital formation and inventories speaks volume about the pessimism over the future. {snip}

On Friday, September 4, Statistics Canada released news on unemployment. The jobs picture looked surprisingly good EXCEPT it seems the unemployment rate may have bottomed. The unemployment rate is on the vertical axis of the graph below.


Has Canada's unemployment rate bottomed?
Has Canada’s unemployment rate bottomed?

Source: Statistics Canada

{snip}

At least employment in natural resources – which includes forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction – stabilized somewhat. {snip}


The Canadian dollar's trading range is churning within an overall weakening trend.
The Canadian dollar’s trading range is churning within an overall weakening trend.

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

The Canadian dollar was last this weak against the U.S. dollar in 2004. {snip}


Net short positions against the Canadian dollar by speculators have come down in recent weeks. Still, these positions are around highs seen earlier during this period of weakness for the Canadian dollar
Net short positions against the Canadian dollar by speculators have come down in recent weeks. Still, these positions are around highs seen earlier during this period of weakness for the Canadian dollar

Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: long FXC

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 6, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.)

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