Two weeks ago, I noted Rio Tinto (RIO) as a prime short as a late responder to the on-going collapse in iron ore prices. On Monday (September 22), it broke down. Typically, I close out fortuitous short positions on such swift moves, but I am projecting RIO to go a lot lower over the next several weeks or months as the stock has been very slow to respond to deteriorating fundamentals and technicals.
So I was a bit surprised when Morgan Stanley (MS) upgraded RIO to overweight and hiked its price target. It seems they essentially made a financial engineering argument where RIO will be able to convince the markets in December at its Capital Markets Day that it has the financial wherewithal to maintain an increase in dividends. MS also claimed that there is upside in RIO’s aluminum business. It was enough to help RIO complete the close of Monday’s gap down. At the time of writing, the MS gains have been quickly reversed.
The gap up may have been the result of fortuitous timing. Emerging markets, miners, and commodities all enjoyed a reprieve from the selling yesterday. Today’s quick reversal tells me that it is very possible that the upgrade was indeed immaterial.
Regardless, I am a bit skeptical of Morgan’s thesis. Given I think iron ore could fall a lot more -along with a whole host of other commodities – it seems to me Morgan is ignoring significant downside risk on the way to its more rosy scenario. In particular, I do not think RIO will lift much until (or if?!?!) the Australian dollar (FXA) finally sells off significantly to generate a better balance in Australia’s economy. The Australian dollar has been quite stubborn in responding to deteriorating fundamentals given its attractiveness to capital markets for yield and/or some kind of “safety” bet relative to other major economies. These trades have only just begun to unwind in the past month or so. Despite very sharp rally in the U.S. dollar index for two months, the Australian dollar is only back to even for the year against the U.S. dollar.
Source for charts: FreeStockCharts.com
So, overall, I think rallies on RIO are opportunities to fade.
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long RIO put options, net short the Australian dollar
Sept 26 addendum: link to a WSJ article providing more details on the thesis of the Morgan Stanley upgrade: “Rio Tinto and The Tough Business of Pumping Iron Ore: Miner Faces Strategic Bind as Price of Commodity Tumbles“