The Odds Deliver As Post-Earnings Apple Breaks April’s Downtrend

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 27, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Ahead of Apple’s (AAPL) earnings on Tuesday, April 24, I wrote the following {snip}

I went on to demonstrate the strong relationship between Apple’s average price change two weeks ahead of earnings, and the performance of the stock the day after earnings. This latest earnings report delivered in an astonishingly convincing fashion. Apple went into earnings with a -1.1% average price change over the prior two weeks of trading; it’s worst such performance since at least 2007.


Apple's Average Daily Price Change During the Two Weeks Prior to Earnings Since 2007
Apple's Average Daily Price Change During the Two Weeks Prior to Earnings Since 2007

The stock closed the day after earnings with an 8.9% gain, its largest one-day, post-earnings gain since at least 2007.


Distribution of One-Day Price Changes After Apple Reports Earnings (Jan, 2007 to Apr, 2012)
Distribution of One-Day Price Changes After Apple Reports Earnings (Jan, 2007 to Apr, 2012)

This performance further solidified the strong tendency for Apple to experience positive gains after earnings, including a perfect performance for April.


Number of Positive Versus Negative One-Day Reactions to Apple's Earnings By Month of the Year (Since 2007)
Number of Positive Versus Negative One-Day Reactions to Apple's Earnings By Month of the Year (Since 2007)

Apple’s post-earnings performance is now even more strongly, negatively correlated with its 2-week average price performance over the last three years. The negative correlation is almost as perfect as one could expect!


Correlation of Apple's 2-Week Average Daily Pre-Earnings Price Change to the One-Day Post-Earnings Price Change
Correlation of Apple's 2-Week Average Daily Pre-Earnings Price Change to the One-Day Post-Earnings Price Change

{snip} This relationship provides yet more icing on top for the case of a strong April post-earnings performance following an exceptionally weak two weeks of trading.


Correlation of Apple's 2-Week Average Daily Pre-Earnings Price Change to the One-Day Post-Earnings Price Change Sorted By the Month of Earnings
Correlation of Apple's 2-Week Average Daily Pre-Earnings Price Change to the One-Day Post-Earnings Price Change Sorted By the Month of Earnings

{snip}

Given that Apple did not provide any sizzle to its guidance for the current quarter, I suspect Apple will meander for a while. {snip}


Apple breaks out above resistance but breaking to new all-time highs could be even tougher
Apple breaks out above resistance but breaking to new all-time highs could be even tougher

{snip}

Until the next earnings report, be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 27, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: no positions

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