The Federal Reserve meets and decides monetary policy on Tuesday right in the middle of the most tumultuous time for global financial markets perhaps since the March, 2009 lows. As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is furiously printing money to buttress its financial system and promote calm, I fully expect the Fed to issue a supportive statement. The Fed will likely remind us it stands by strong liquidity in the markets, and, with risks to the global economy now increasing, interest rate hikes will be banned even from the whisper and gossip rooms. I continue to assume the Federal Reserve is “scared to death” of any relapse that even looks like the onset of recession and thus, it will have a bias toward actions that lead to looser monetary policy.
Here is the chart of the S&P 500 that Bernanke and crew saw before bedtime (assuming they can sleep with unfolding events in Japan, including a plunge in the Nikkei as large as 14%).
*Chart created using TeleChart:
The trading action in the yen is a great reminder of how frustrated the BoJ must be with the currency markets. Neither crisis nor liquidity injections have drained the market’s appetite for buying yen. The most recent explanation for this strength is a repatriation of currency to Japan as nervous investors sell assets and otherwise bring money back home to spend on recovery and/or preparations for additional emergencies. On Sunday a huge surge in the yen was quickly met with strong selling of the yen, presumably, from the BoJ taking action. This formed an important low and boundary for support in the yen currency pairs like USD/JPY:
Source: dailyfx.com charts
On the flip side, for now, the Japanese can buy much needed commodities and material at much cheaper relative prices than, say, Americans. (Last August I did a short post on the 25-year on-going decline of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen).
T2108 hit fresh 3 1/2 month lows at 44%. The S&P 500 bounced from these levels in November and August, so it is not a time to aggressively short…even with the bearish news flow. Central banks are likely to stand united in supporting liquidity (and calm) in the financial markets. The current action is a great time for market makers to take out stops and force some rushed selling at the open with a gap down, only to buy everything back at a discount (if that has not already happened in the futures market and/or pre-market trading). Moreover, Monday actually featured a bounce and buying into the close even with risks looming. This is NOT to say go aggressively long either. After all, T2108 is at provocative lows, but it is still not yet oversold. Instead, a measured approach that monitors positive and negative catalysts seems appropriate.
Note well that I am not spending much time writing about my predictions for the outcomes of the crises in Japan (or the Middle East and North Africa). I find it much more pragmatic (and realistic) to try to understand the market’s dynamic reactions to these events and respond accordingly one day or one week at a time. For example, I remain fascinated with the seemingly low readings in the VIX-X despite the growing risks. Even though the VIX-X could finally spike upward on Tuesday, I have to assume that overall these low levels are a positive sign. However, it also makes sense to take the opportunity to buy relatively cheap downside protection given the sellers have finally gained advantage.
I am also reminded of Nassim Taleb’s many warnings regarding our limited ability to draw probability distributions that meaningfully reflect extremes in risk. (For a technical discussion see “On the Unfortunate Problem of the Nonobservability of the Probability Distribution {PDF}) – imagine the scramble of scientists now updating probability models about the size and frequency of earthquakes and related tsunamis.
Finally, I feel fortunate to have stubbornly insisted on treating the latest swoon in solar stocks as a buying opportunity. On Monday, some solar stocks popped as much as 12%. I have no idea whether the development of additional nuclear power reactors is now dead for another generation, but I can appreciate the real possibility that the nuclear crisis in Japan could prove to be a watershed moment for solar energy and other renewables. Japan’s recent experience adds to the implicit cost of nuclear energy (that is, the costs of preventing, mitigating, and responding to disasters), and it should increase the mindshare of solar. Of course, headwinds still exist, but the sun sure looks a lot friendlier these days.
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long SSO puts, EWJ, VXX, and net short the yen. Long SHAW put. Solar positioning long JKS, FSLR, LDK, CSIQ, SOLR, SATC, JASO, Solarworld, Arise Technologies, WEST, and ESLR (recently sold positions in TSL and 5N Plus). Most trades posted on twitter with the #120trade hashtag.
Yes, thats just what the smart money want is for everyone to sell down here so they can accumulate. Big Gap down but no follow through down.