Intel Follows-Through On Bearish Turn

It took a little over a week, but Intel (INTC) finally succumbed to the anticipated retest of the old downtrend line (click for a larger view).


Intel breaks down further
Intel breaks down further

*Chart created using TeleChart:

Multiple catalysts seemed to weigh down on INTC on Tuesday:

  1. Taiwanese manufacturers of notebooks reported large drops in sales and Quanta warned it will not make previously announced revenue targets (see Taiwan Notebook Makers Post Big Drop In July Sales Vs. June).
  2. Analyst downgrades which reinforced growing fears over the health of the PC supply chain. Barclays, Wedbush and Baird all issued related warnings.

INTC is now yielding 3% with a forward P/E of 9.3 and trailing P/E of 11.9. Although price-to-sales and price-to-book remain well above 2, the contrarian in me finds itself suddenly tempted by the stock. But the technicals continue to look ugly to me; they continue to suggest that the market is anticipating that INTC’s best performance is finally behind it for now. If the old downtrend line breaks, the July lows will likely get retested in short order…and then fail. I am not interested in shorting the stock, so I sit “observe mode.”

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: no positions

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