The British Pound’s “Quiet” Sell-Off Continues Nearly Unabated

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Almost a month ago, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King spoke at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London at the Mansion House, and I wrote afterward that the speech reminded me of almost every reason why I remain bearish on the British pound

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…the pound is teetering on the edge of a major breakdown against the U.S. dollar. For most of 2011, the pound has held 1.590-1.595 or so as support, but that support looks ready to break soon.


The pound looks ready to break down against the U.S. dollar
The pound looks ready to break down against the U.S. dollar

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…While so much focus and attention has spotlighted the persistent and likely future weakness of the U.S. dollar, the British pound has “quietly” but surely tried to poke ahead of the U.S. in the race to the bottom of “the currency wars.” Indeed, the British pound is looking more and more like it could be the currency of choice to fund carry trades.

I have scaled some charts of the pound against major currencies going back to the early 1990s to demonstrate the historic nature of the pound’s nearly unabated decline:


A historic decline against the Australian dollar
A historic decline against the Australian dollar


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GBP/JPY scale is on the left, GBP/CHF is on the right. Either way you look at it, the pound looks to go even lower in both currency pairs
GBP/JPY scale is on the left, GBP/CHF is on the right. Either way you look at it, the pound looks to go even lower in both currency pairs


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Some British have expressed relief that the U.K. did not join the euro, but the euro is essentially stronger than ever against the pound!
Some British have expressed relief that the U.K. did not join the euro, but the euro is essentially stronger than ever against the pound!


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In trading the pound’s behavior, I have taken an approach of “gradualism” that involves both trend and counter-trend plays…

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Be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: short GBP/CHF, long GBP/USD, short EUR/GBP

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