The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts for 2010 confirm my earlier view that steel demand (and production) most likely bottomed this year and some kind of recovery is underway.
Worldsteel’s forecasts indicate that demand for steel in 2010 will return to 2008 levels after contracting in 2009 by 8.6%:
“The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is forecasting that apparent steel use will contract worldwide by -8.6% to 1,104 mmt in 2009 after declining by -1.4% in 2008. This is an improved figure over the spring forecast issued in April 2009 which predicted a decrease of -14.1%. The improvement is largely due to the exceptionally strong growth in steel demand in China. With signs, from the beginning of the second half of 2009, of a recovery across the world now apparent, global steel demand in 2010 is forecast to grow by 9.2% to 1,206 mmt which is a recovery to the level of 2008.”
While Chinese steel demand should account for 48% of the world’s apparent steel use, Worldsteel does not expect Chinese growth rates to lead the way next year (“ArcelorMittal chief surprised at China’s steel demand outlook“). Chinese growth will drop to 5% while regions like the U.S., India, and the EU-27 will experience double-digit rates of increase.
Click here for the details of Worldsteel’s forecasts. (This post also appears on “Inflation Watch“).
Note that these forecasts come right on the heels of a mostly negative report in Barron’s over the weekend on U.S. Steel. Quoted analysts were divided on whether X is over-valued and how much risk exists in future supply and demand for steel. Interestingly, the article cites Nucor (NUE), AK Steel (AKS), and ArcelorMittal (MT) and “other steel companies” as better investments. Timna Tanners of UBS has a sell rating on X and a price target of $25, but she seems to like Steel Dynamics (STLD) which is “…in a better position than U.S. Steel to restart production quickly and respond to spot demand. ‘It doesn’t have the same high cost structure as U.S. Steel’.”
The article ends by claiming that “A sustained global economic recovery would benefit all steel producers, but that seems a long way off.” At least for now, Worldsteel’s forecasts suggest otherwise.
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long STLD
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