First Solar Breaks Out

Two weeks ago, I first noted an impressive “stealth” rally in some solar stocks like SOL, LDK, and JASO. At the time, First Solar (FSLR) was flat on the year, but it still made the list because this flat performance was out-performing the general market. I also noted that FSLR was due for a pullback given it was testing its downtrend line in overbought technical conditions.

Instead of pulling back, FSLR did not hesitate to break through the downtrend and has traveled up the path of least resistance ever since. FSLR is now up 8% for the year.

The weekly chart below shows the breakout from the downtrend. The daily chart below that shows how a complete lack of selling pressure has allowed FSLR to travel near straight up for the entire month of September.


First Solar breaks the downtrend
First Solar breaks the downtrend

First Solar travels up the path of least resistance
First Solar travels up the path of least resistance

*All charts created using TeleChart:

The next point of resistance is $150. This price level marks the high for the year and was a pivot point in 2009. I am guessing that as long as the general market avoids a major correction, FSLR will continue floating higher, even past this resistance point. The next earnings announcement will probably not occur until late October, so barring a surprise earnings warning (I do not expect one), any company-specific news flow should increase the likelihood of FSLR breaking the next level of resistance.

Finally, this breakout also greatly relieves the pressure on the $100 support line. The corporate insiders who loaded up on the stock when it tested this support line in February are now up over 45% since then – even with one last retest of the $100 level just three months ago.

Be careful out there!

Full disclosure: no positions

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.