A Subtle Change In Tone As the U.S. Dollar Achieves Year-to-Date Highs - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 31, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.)

The U.S. dollar index (UUP) has increased steadily all of July. The dollar index has gained 2% month-to-date. This matches a similar gain from the dollar’s last low in early May to a peak in mid-June. Stringing these two streaks together, along with a marginal new high for 2014, and it suddenly seems like the U.S. dollar is experiencing a change in tone, albeit subtle.

Overall, the dollar remains stuck in an extended trading range; it is far too early to speculate on a breakout. {snip}

The dollar is almost running in a full sprint now

Overall, the dollar has essentially gone nowhere the last 2 1/2 years

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

This current run is important because many analysts had expected 2014 to be the dollar’s year. U.S. economic growth was supposed to lead global growth but a harsh winter helped stunt those expectations.

{snip}

I have also pounded the table for the U.S. dollar especially against the euro (FXE), yen (FXY), and Canadian dollar (FXC). A slide in the euro long-awaited by the European Central Bank (ECB) seems to be finally underway. {snip}

After an extended consolidation period, the U.S. dollar finally looks poised to resume its 2013 strength against the yen

The British pound is putting a squeeze on the Japanese yen - an imminent breakout? — The British pound is putting a squeeze on the Japanese yen – an imminent breakout?

Interestingly, the Australian dollar (FXA) matched the Japanese yen in weakness. It looks like the Australian dollar has finally lost its upward momentum.

The Australian dollar finally looks like it has lost its upward lift against the U.S. dollar

Source for charts: FreeStockCharts.com

{snip}

Be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 31, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: net long the U.S. dollar

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