Amazon.com Reports First Net Loss In Nine Years, So Buy the Stock Of Course!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)

“If Amazon were an ordinary company, investors would long ago have strapped its management to a rocket ship and sent it far, far away.”
From “Amazon and Its Admirers Shrug Off Report of a Loss as Sales Keep Climbing“, NY Times, October 26, 2012

By now, the resilience of Amazon.com (AMZN) should be legendary. AMZN is a company that generates large amounts of revenue and very little profit. Yet, the stock has staged an incredible comeback from the burst of the tech bubble…{snip}


The resilient stock of Amazon.com
The resilient stock of Amazon.com

{snip} As the New York Times stated: “What separates Amazon from the competition is that it is not trying to make money. It is instead trying to grow as fast as it can, something it has been doing successfully for 15 years.”


Amazon.com Sales Vs. Total Net Income As A Percent of Sales (Net Margin)
Amazon.com Sales Vs. Total Net Income As A Percent of Sales (Net Margin)

Source: MSN Money Ten-Year Summary

The third quarter’s net loss was Amazon’s first in nine years but seems consistent with the annual trend in place since the recession. {snip}

On top of the rare loss, AMZN guided down for Q4 revenue and operating income… {snip}… So, it was no surprise when AMZN’s stock quickly dropped as much as 9% in after hours to print almost $200. However, as is so often the case with AMZN, this dip turned into an instant buying signal.{snip}


Amazon.com avoids a retest of its 200DMA with a strong post-earnings bounce
Amazon.com avoids a retest of its 200DMA with a strong post-earnings bounce

Source: FreeStockCharts.com

Since the beginning of this year, I have advocated a strategy of buying AMZN immediately at the open the day after reporting earnings. {snip}

Finally, I am updating the overall post-earnings analysis for AMZN. {snip}

Click for a larger view…


Returns for Buying Amazon.com's Post-Earnings Open or Close With A Stop-Loss Rule
Returns for Buying Amazon.com's Post-Earnings Open or Close With A Stop-Loss Rule

Source: Price data from Yahoo!Finance

CHARTS FOR AMZN EARNINGS SINCE 2009

2009 Q1



2009 Q2



2009 Q3



2009 Q4



2010 Q1



2010 Q2



2010 Q3



2010 Q4



2011 Q1



2011 Q2



2011 Q3



2011 Q4



2012 Q1



2012 Q2

2012 Q3

Source for charts: stockcharts.com

Be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: long AMZN

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