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A little over two weeks ago I provided a comprehensive review of the tales and tales of woe that homebuilder executives are producing for public consumption. At that time, I noted that Toll Brothers' earnings warning was full of misplaced optimism for housing's immediate prospects. Sure enough, in its earnings conference call last week, Toll stuck to its script. Toll is clearly focused on the long view while dismissing the current downturn as just another cyclical event. Even more interesting is that Toll notes that general economic malaise has not precipitated this downturn, but it does not even consider that the downturn this time portends imminent economic malaise. This blindness is what caused me to mark Toll's stock down for further declines. I have been particularly focused on Toll because it was one of the first homebuilders to report softening business conditions. So, I look to the company to call it plain. And it typically does. As usual, the standard media reports do not do justice to the earnings call. I always find it more interesting and informative to check out the actual conference call with a particular focus on the Q&A with analysts. This time was no different. Many analysts asked pointed questions and tried to uproot some of the optimism Toll seemed to exude (eventually, the executives did at least say they are not "bullish."). I jotted down a few noteworthy points that I thought I would share with those of you who are also fascinated with the tales of America's latest bubble...
All in all, listening to the conference call was much more instructive than reading the boilerplate regurgigation of the printed earnings press release. As always, I encourage you to listen for yourself as well. Be careful out there! |