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Perfectly Awful Storm Building - The Latest Pinpricks for Housing By Dr. Duru written for One-Twenty August 10, 2006 Ever since I chose to start following the housing industry and homebuilder stocks in early 2005, the drama has been building around the saga of the housing boom, bubble, and bust. I largely stood by and watched these stocks soar into their summer peaks, I "bought" into the bubble when I purchased my own abode even as I chided homebuilders for their misplaced optimism, I tried to nail a bottom in the slide, and I finally (mercifully) got back on the downtrend and bearish bandwagon. Even with everything I have written in such a short time, it seems like I can never quite keep up with the drama. In the past week, I notified you late of a nice relief rally in the homebuilder stocks that started around July 21st. The best part of the move came right after that, and, as we should expect, the buyers finally exhausted themselves and the overall downtrend re-exerted itself. Some homebuilders like HOV, BHS, and DHI are already hurtling right back to their 52-week lows on drops of 10% and more for recent highs off the latest relief rally. But the drama continues and now happens so fast, I feel like I need to act like a sports announcer to keep up. In the past few days Hovnanian and Toll Brothers added their two cents to the never-ending flow of broken promises. Even worse, we heard bad news from the lending institutions that supply large chunks of mortgage financing. Why is this news even worse? Well, the housing industry moves on money even more than it moves on land and materials. Money is the initiator of the supply. And the lenders are telling us that things are looking grim. In other words, as hard as it may be for some of you to believe, the pain will continue in the homebuilder stocks. A perfectly awful storm is brewing and building. More storms and no land in sight. I highly recommend you catch up on all the details if you can. I will try to summarize the latest with some of my own observations and commentary:
Be careful out there and bring plenty of band-aids! |