More Bubble
Room
By Duru
July 4,
2005
"The
International Monetary Fund predicts that in 2005 the worldwide savings rate
should hit its highest level in at least two decades." ("Too
Much Money" by various writers, BusinessWeek, July 11, 2005)
The above
quote absolutely stunned me when I read it.
I am so used to bemoaning the low savings rates and high debt levels in
the
The
BusinessWeek article expresses concern and worry over what might happen if this
savings glut comes to an end. I think
the more appropriate and immediate question might be to ask "where will the
next bubble grow?" As the global
economy has passed from one bubble to the next (the Japanese economic miracle,
Southeast Asian tiger economies, global stock markets, and now global real
estate markets), we should be getting a clue that this developing global
economic system tells the drama of capital chasing one get rich quick scheme after
another. Sure the latest bubbles have
reached historic proportions relative to past bubbles in their relative asset
classes, but I would think that a continued savings glut means that there still
exists a large and capable audience of bubble blowers. These excess savings can continue driving
current bubbles or start the next one.
Essentially, there is still plenty of bubble room.
BusinessWeek
is kind enough to provide the
contrary opinion of economist James Paulsen, but even he is mainly worried
about a rise in interest rates that will cause current bubbles to pop and
spending to freeze up. He also predicts
that rising inflation will quickly soak up all these luscious excess
savings. On the other hand, the bond
markets remain skeptical of longer-term inflationary pressures. The Fed claims it is fighting inflation now, and
maybe they get things right this time.
Regardless, if the Fed stops short in its "measured" rate of
hikes for fear of causing the next recession, we will certainly be talking
about a new bubble somewhere, somehow in the near future. In fact, the biggest irony is that a Fed
tightening campaign that triggers a recession will only set the stage for the
next cycle of rate cuts. These
reductions may occur in full light of a savings glut exacerbated by the
retrenchment that typically comes from economic recession. And who knows how fast the money will start
flowing then, right?!?! Heck, maybe steel will even reflate!
If economy
does have plenty of additional bubble room, I would prefer to have that discussion
because I want to be the first one in the water this time! ;)
Be careful out
there!