{"id":9807,"date":"2012-02-08T03:55:56","date_gmt":"2012-02-08T08:55:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=9807"},"modified":"2012-02-08T03:55:56","modified_gmt":"2012-02-08T08:55:56","slug":"quantifying-why-amazon-com-was-a-buy-at-the-open-after-reporting-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/02\/08\/quantifying-why-amazon-com-was-a-buy-at-the-open-after-reporting-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"Quantifying Why Amazon.com Was A Buy At the Open After Reporting Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 6, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/344611-why-amazon-com-was-a-buy-at-the-open-after-reporting-earnings\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Soon after Amazon.com (AMZN) reported earnings last Tuesday, <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/331212-after-amazon-com-earnings-buy-the-stock-at-the-opening-price\" target=\"_blank\">I wrote a post concluding that AMZN stock was worth a buy<\/a> as soon as the stock opened for trading on Wednesday. This recommendation was not based on the discount the market was offering (at the time around 10%). Instead, it was based on AMZN&#8217;s post-earnings trading behavior over the past three years&#8230; {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Now, as promised, here is a quantitative justification for this trade. The chart below summarizes the results (click for larger view):<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9809\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9809\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120206_AmazonPostEarningsReturns.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120206_AmazonPostEarningsReturns-300x137.jpg\" alt=\"Summary of Results from Trading Amazon.com the Day After Reported Earnings\" title=\"Summary of Results from Trading Amazon.com the Day After Reported Earnings\" width=\"300\" height=\"137\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-9809\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120206_AmazonPostEarningsReturns-300x137.jpg 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120206_AmazonPostEarningsReturns.jpg 847w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9809\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Summary of Results from Trading Amazon.com the Day After Reported Earnings<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: Price data from Yahoo!Finance<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Note the following observations from this table:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Both strategies, buying on the open or the close, have a 7-5 win-loss record {snip}.<\/li>\n<li>Buying the open performs dramatically better than buying the close because of three trading cycles where buyers took AMZN much higher from the open on the very first day of post-earnings trading. {snip}<\/li>\n<li>The stop loss rule does not terminate any trades that would have otherwise delivered positive returns at the end of two weeks. {snip}<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>So far, so good on trading last week&#8217;s earnings. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The biggest irony of discovering this bullish trading pattern is that I have been mainly bearish on AMZN ever since it broke below its 200-day moving average (DMA) in late November. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9812\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9812\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120206_AMZN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120206_AMZN.png\" alt=\"Despite the impressive post-earnings bounce, AMZN remains stuck in a bearish pattern for the intermediate timeframe\" title=\"Despite the impressive post-earnings bounce, AMZN remains stuck in a bearish pattern for the intermediate timeframe\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9812\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120206_AMZN.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120206_AMZN-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9812\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Despite the impressive post-earnings bounce, AMZN remains stuck in a bearish pattern for the intermediate timeframe<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Finally, I reproduce the pre\/post-earnings charts that inspired this trade. Refer to the previous post for more details.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2009 Q1<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q1.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2009Q1\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q1.png 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q1-300x247.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2009 Q2<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q2.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2009Q2\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2009 Q3<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q3.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2009Q3\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2009 Q4<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2009Q4.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2009Q4\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2010 Q1<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2010Q1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2010Q1.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2010Q1\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2010 Q2<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2010Q2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2010Q2.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2010Q2\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2010 Q3<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2010Q3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2010Q3.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2010Q3\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2010 Q4<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2010Q4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2010Q4.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2010Q4\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2011 Q1<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2011Q1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2011Q1.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2011Q1\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2011 Q2<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2011Q2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2011Q2.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2011Q2\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2011 Q3<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2011Q3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2011Q3.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2011Q3\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>2011 Q4<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2011Q4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/120201_AMZN-2011Q4.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"120201_AMZN-2011Q4\" width=\"520\" height=\"429\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-9708\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui\" target=\"_blank\">stockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 6, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/344611-why-amazon-com-was-a-buy-at-the-open-after-reporting-earnings\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long AMZN call spread<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Soon after Amazon.com (AMZN) reported earnings last Tuesday, I wrote a post concluding that AMZN stock was worth a buy as soon as the stock opened for trading on Wednesday. This &#8230; <a title=\"Quantifying Why Amazon.com Was A Buy At the Open After Reporting Earnings\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/02\/08\/quantifying-why-amazon-com-was-a-buy-at-the-open-after-reporting-earnings\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,338,135,62],"tags":[495,398,1597],"class_list":["post-9807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-retail","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-amazon-com","tag-amzn","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Quantifying Why Amazon.com Was A Buy At the Open After Reporting Earnings - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/02\/08\/quantifying-why-amazon-com-was-a-buy-at-the-open-after-reporting-earnings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Quantifying Why Amazon.com Was A Buy At the Open After Reporting Earnings - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 6, 2012. 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ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/02\/08\/quantifying-why-amazon-com-was-a-buy-at-the-open-after-reporting-earnings\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Quantifying Why Amazon.com Was A Buy At the Open After Reporting Earnings - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","og_description":"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Soon after Amazon.com (AMZN) reported earnings last Tuesday, I wrote a post concluding that AMZN stock was worth a buy as soon as the stock opened for trading on Wednesday. This ... 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