{"id":972,"date":"2010-01-30T00:05:47","date_gmt":"2010-01-30T05:05:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=972"},"modified":"2010-01-30T00:05:47","modified_gmt":"2010-01-30T05:05:47","slug":"dollar-breaks-out-gold-yen-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/30\/dollar-breaks-out-gold-yen-steady\/","title":{"rendered":"Potential Trouble Brewing: Dollar Breaks Out While Gold and Yen Hold Steady"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar index is only trading back to levels from last summer. However, from a technical standpoint, the dollar has broken out: the short-term downtrend has ended, and the current move has considerable upside potential.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_973\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-973\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_DXY0.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_DXY0.jpg\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar breaks out with considerable potential upside\" title=\"The U.S. dollar breaks out with considerable potential upside\" width=\"525\" height=\"323\" class=\"size-full wp-image-973\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_DXY0.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_DXY0-300x184.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-973\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar breaks out with considerable potential upside<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n*<strong>Chart created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/Content\/Banners\/images\/88x31.gif\"><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The chart above shows that the dollar&#8217;s break below the 200DMA in May led to a prolonged decline. At the time, I used this break to insist that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/090510_DollarToppingOutAgain.htm\">the dollar had topped out and was heading much lower<\/a>. Last week <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/21\/dollars-shortterm-downtrend-ending\/\">I speculated that this downtrend was potentially ending<\/a> based on the dollar&#8217;s interaction with the 200DMA over the last four years. <\/p>\n<p>For now, I see considerable upside potential for the dollar from here. More importantly, both gold and the yen held steady in the face of the dollar&#8217;s impressive move this week. Gold still clings to important near-term support, and the U.S. dollar continues its trend of weakness against the Japanese yen (starting from April, 2008).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_975\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-975\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_XAUUSD.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_XAUUSD.jpg\" alt=\"Gold clings to near-term support\" title=\"Gold clings to near-term support\" width=\"525\" height=\"283\" class=\"size-full wp-image-975\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_XAUUSD.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_XAUUSD-300x161.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-975\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Gold clings to near-term support<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_974\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-974\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_USDJPY.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_USDJPY.jpg\" alt=\"U.S. dollar continues to weaken against the yen\" title=\"U.S. dollar continues to weaken against the yen\" width=\"525\" height=\"278\" class=\"size-full wp-image-974\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_USDJPY.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100129_USDJPY-300x158.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-974\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">U.S. dollar continues to weaken against the yen<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n(<strong>*Charts created using <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyfx.com\/charts\/forexpowerchart\/\">dailyfx.com Powercharts<\/a><\/strong>)<br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>If these trends and support hold up, I cannot help but believe that the market is bracing itself for the impact of brewing trouble. For example, a stronger dollar and yen hurt the carry trade which relies on a weak, low-interest currency (other &#8220;zero-cost&#8221; currencies like the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar probably cannot provide enough liquidity to handle a complete transfer in carry trades). As carry trades are closed out to lock in profits or limit losses, risky assets like stocks and certain commodities will continue experiencing selling pressure &#8211; at least to the extent that carry trades were responsible for floating assets around the world. <\/p>\n<p>If gold holds steady with the dollar, it is gaining ground against declining currencies in the dollar index like the British pound and especially the euro. Such a move could signal more devastating news about Europe&#8217;s sovereign debt problems.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, I am speculating here. After all, the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar looked resilient against the dollar&#8217;s advance until this past week, serving reminder that trends and support are always subject to change at any time. Just last month, it seemed that <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/12\/22\/the-stock-market-decouples-from-the-dollar\/\">the stock market had finally decoupled from the U.S. dollar<\/a>. Nonetheless, I think the above possible interpretations of current developments in currencies have a high enough likelihood to warrant close attention and aligning trades accordingly.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: short EUR\/USD, long USD\/JPY, long AUD\/USD, long FXA, short GBP\/JPY, long USD\/CAD, long GLD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar index is only trading back to levels from last summer. However, from a technical standpoint, the dollar has broken out: the short-term downtrend has ended, and the current move has considerable upside potential. *Chart created using TeleChart: The chart above shows that the dollar&#8217;s break below the 200DMA in May led to &#8230; <a title=\"Potential Trouble Brewing: Dollar Breaks Out While Gold and Yen Hold Steady\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/30\/dollar-breaks-out-gold-yen-steady\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,21],"tags":[137,263,299,24,138,1591],"class_list":["post-972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-u-s-dollar","tag-carry-trade","tag-debt","tag-dxy0","tag-gold","tag-japanese-yen","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Potential Trouble Brewing: Dollar Breaks Out While Gold and Yen Hold Steady - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/30\/dollar-breaks-out-gold-yen-steady\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Potential Trouble Brewing: Dollar Breaks Out While Gold and Yen Hold Steady - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S. dollar index is only trading back to levels from last summer. 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