{"id":9404,"date":"2012-01-21T12:30:05","date_gmt":"2012-01-21T17:30:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=9404"},"modified":"2012-01-21T12:30:05","modified_gmt":"2012-01-21T17:30:05","slug":"opps-from-nat-gas-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/01\/21\/opps-from-nat-gas-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"Opportunities From the Crash In Natural Gas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 17, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/320056-opportunities-from-the-crash-in-natural-gas\" title=\"Opportunities from the Crash in Natural Gas\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Last year I wrote a two-part series leveraging the work of Jeremy Grantham to develop a strategy for profiting from a crash in commodity prices (see &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/278697-profiting-from-physical-assets-in-a-resource-constrained-world-rules-and-picks\" target=\"_blank\">Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World &#8211; Rules and Picks<\/a>&#8220;). Since then, commodity-related stocks have dipped several times and in many cases triggered buying opportunities by erasing their QE2-inspired gains. Yet, no crash has occurred, and <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/314942-from-destocking-to-restocking-joy-global-weakens-case-for-a-commodities-crash\" target=\"_blank\">I am increasingly thinking no crash is imminent<\/a>. However, there is one commodity that seems to have crossed the crash threshold: natural gas. <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9405\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9405\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120115_NaturalGasSpot.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120115_NaturalGasSpot.jpg\" alt=\"Henry Hub Gulf Coast Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars\/Mil. BTUs)\" title=\"Henry Hub Gulf Coast Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars\/Mil. BTUs)\" width=\"520\" height=\"212\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120115_NaturalGasSpot.jpg 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120115_NaturalGasSpot-300x122.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9405\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Henry Hub Gulf Coast Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars\/Mil. BTUs)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/ng\/hist\/rngwhhdD.htm\" title=\"Natural Gas Prices\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Energy Information Administration<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Given my desire to buy into commodities on the cheap, it certainly seems time to expand my exposure in natural gas. I consulted with a friend of mine&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;the wait until the next spike is killing anyone trying to hang on through UNG:<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9411\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9411\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_UNG.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_UNG.png\" alt=\"UNG has provided almost nothing but downside since its inception\" title=\"UNG has provided almost nothing but downside since its inception\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9411\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_UNG.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_UNG-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9411\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">UNG has provided almost nothing but downside since its inception<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I previously listed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sjbrt.com\" target=\"_blank\">San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Co<\/a> (SJT) and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guggenheimfunds.com\/etf\/fund\/eny\" target=\"_blank\">Guggenheim Canadian Energy Inc<\/a> (ENY) as preferable plays on natural gas&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9408\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9408\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_SJT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_SJT.png\" alt=\"San Juan Trust is well off its highs from the prior bull market but is still holding its breakout from a 15+ year consolidation\" title=\"San Juan Trust is well off its highs from the prior bull market but is still holding its breakout from a 15+ year consolidation\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_SJT.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_SJT-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9408\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">San Juan Trust is well off its highs from the prior bull market but is still holding its breakout from a 15+ year consolidation<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>ENY is a fund that tracks the market-timing Sustainable Canadian Energy Income Index. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9409\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9409\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_ENY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_ENY.png\" alt=\"Since plunging to its lows in 2011, ENY has firmly held the QE2 reference price as support\" title=\"Since plunging to its lows in 2011, ENY has firmly held the QE2 reference price as support\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_ENY.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/120113_ENY-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9409\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Since plunging to its lows in 2011, ENY has firmly held the QE2 reference price as support<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" title=\"FreeStockCharts.com\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, I am holding onto SJT although it has dropped 11% from where I bought it last year. I will be adding to the position on any steeper sell-off, and then will purchase ENY at what I will consider to be a very attractive entry point.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 17, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/320056-opportunities-from-the-crash-in-natural-gas\" title=\"Opportunities from the Crash in Natural Gas\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long SJT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last year I wrote a two-part series leveraging the work of Jeremy Grantham to develop a strategy for profiting from a crash in commodity prices (see &#8220;Profiting from Physical Assets in &#8230; <a title=\"Opportunities From the Crash In Natural Gas\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/01\/21\/opps-from-nat-gas-crash\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[235,199,697,377],"tags":[685,639,881,880,536,879,657,877,878],"class_list":["post-9404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-canada","category-commodities","category-natural-gas","category-oil","tag-commodities-crash-playbook","tag-eny","tag-fracking","tag-guggenheim-canadian-energy-income-etf","tag-oil-2","tag-san-juan-basin-royalty-trust-co","tag-sjt","tag-ung","tag-united-states-natural-gas-fund"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Opportunities From the Crash In Natural Gas - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/01\/21\/opps-from-nat-gas-crash\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Opportunities From the Crash In Natural Gas - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 17, 2012. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Last year I wrote a two-part series leveraging the work of Jeremy Grantham to develop a strategy for profiting from a crash in commodity prices (see &#8220;Profiting from Physical Assets in ... 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