{"id":8961,"date":"2012-01-04T02:31:25","date_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:31:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=8961"},"modified":"2012-01-04T02:31:25","modified_gmt":"2012-01-04T07:31:25","slug":"agricultural-stocks-limp-into-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/01\/04\/agricultural-stocks-limp-into-2012\/","title":{"rendered":"Buying Opportunities Arrive As Agricultural Stocks Limp Into 2012"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 1, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/317027-potential-buying-opportunities-as-agricultural-stocks-like-mosaic-limp-into-2012\" title=\"Potential Buying Opportunities As Agricultural Stocks Like Mosaic Limp Into 2012\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In my last post updating <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/316398-2012-will-begin-with-several-candidate-trades-for-the-commodity-crash-playbook\" target=\"_blank\">the current list of buy candidates for the &#8220;commodity crash&#8221; portfolio<\/a>, I neglected to include fertilizer stocks. Phosphate and potash producers &#8211; like Mosaic (MOS), Potash (POT), and Intrepid Potash (IPI) &#8211; are currently trading at or below their QE2 reference prices. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>On December 28th, MOS reminded me of its laggard status when the company announced production cuts. Here is <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/phoenix.zhtml?c=70455&#038;p=irol-newsArticle&#038;ID=1642866&#038;highlight=\" title=\"Mosaic Announces Phosphate Production Curtailment\" target=\"_blank\">the Mosaic announcement<\/a> in the words of Jim Prokopanko, President and CEO of Mosaic:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>This announcement was only a mild surprise in light of what I read earlier in the month about <a href=\"http:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2011\/12\/13\/agflation-finally-slowing-down\/\" title=\"Agflation finally slowing down\" target=\"_blank\">expanding supplies of agricultural products that are placing downward pressure on agricultural prices<\/a>. It is also possible more conservative farmers are planning for what they regard as an inevitable correction to the recent good fortunes of farmers. In &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/2012-01-02\/u-s-farmers-more-optimistic-after-record-harvest-profit-dtn-survey-shows.html\" title=\"U.S. Farmers More Optimistic After Record Harvest Profit, DTN Survey Shows\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Farmers More Optimistic After Record Harvest Profit, DTN Survey Shows<\/a>&#8220;, Bloomberg quotes such a farmer on Jan 2, 2012:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, a New York Times article on December 31st described how <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/12\/31\/us\/in-iowa-farmland-expands-as-crop-prices-soar.html?scp=1&#038;sq=iowa%20farm&#038;st=cse\" title=\"Farm Acreage Continues to Increase with Crop Prices\" target=\"_blank\">farmers in Iowa are rushing to put more marginal farmland into production because of the continued high prices for their crops<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9096\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9096\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230_MOS.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230_MOS.png\" alt=\"After the QE2 reference price twice provided support for MOS, the stock is now struggling to stay above 17-month lows\" title=\"After the QE2 reference price twice provided support for MOS, the stock is now struggling to stay above 17-month lows\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9096\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230_MOS.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230_MOS-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9096\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">After the QE2 reference price twice provided support for MOS, the stock is now struggling to stay above 17-month lows<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>On December 28th, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/45806400\" title=\"Fast money with Jim Rogers\" target=\"_blank\">the Fast Money crew at CNBC interviewed the ever vocal, commodity guru Jim Rogers about his investing outlook<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<object id=\"cnbcplayer\" height=\"380\" width=\"400\" classid=\"clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000\" codebase=\"http:\/\/download.macromedia.com\/pub\/shockwave\/cabs\/flash\/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0\" ><param name=\"type\" value=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\"\/><param name=\"allowfullscreen\" value=\"true\"\/><param name=\"allowscriptaccess\" value=\"always\"\/><param name=\"quality\" value=\"best\"\/><param name=\"scale\" value=\"noscale\" \/><param name=\"wmode\" value=\"transparent\"\/><param name=\"bgcolor\" value=\"#000000\"\/><param name=\"salign\" value=\"lt\"\/><param name=\"movie\" value=\"http:\/\/plus.cnbc.com\/rssvideosearch\/action\/player\/id\/3000064687\/code\/cnbcplayershare\"\/><embed name=\"cnbcplayer\" PLUGINSPAGE=\"http:\/\/www.macromedia.com\/go\/getflashplayer\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" bgcolor=\"#000000\" height=\"380\" width=\"400\" quality=\"best\" wmode=\"transparent\" scale=\"noscale\" salign=\"lt\" src=\"http:\/\/plus.cnbc.com\/rssvideosearch\/action\/player\/id\/3000064687\/code\/cnbcplayershare\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" \/><\/object><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} The only agricultural ETN on my list to have erased its QE2-inspired gains is the iPath DJ-UBS Grains Total Index (JJG). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_9098\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-9098\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230_JJG.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230_JJG.png\" alt=\"JJG bounces perfectly after retesting its QE2 reference price\" title=\"JJG bounces perfectly after retesting its QE2 reference price\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9098\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230_JJG.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/111230_JJG-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-9098\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">JJG bounces perfectly after retesting its QE2 reference price<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for both charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" title=\"FreeStockCharts.com\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 1, 2012. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/317027-potential-buying-opportunities-as-agricultural-stocks-like-mosaic-limp-into-2012\" title=\"Potential Buying Opportunities As Agricultural Stocks Like Mosaic Limp Into 2012\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long MOS, JJG<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In my last post updating the current list of buy candidates for the &#8220;commodity crash&#8221; portfolio, I neglected to include fertilizer stocks. Phosphate and potash producers &#8211; like Mosaic (MOS), Potash &#8230; <a title=\"Buying Opportunities Arrive As Agricultural Stocks Limp Into 2012\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/01\/04\/agricultural-stocks-limp-into-2012\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[673,181,199,86],"tags":[867,868,862,866,865,643,646,781,863,652,819,864,869,870],"class_list":["post-8961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-agriculture-2","category-brazil","category-commodities","category-investing","tag-agrium","tag-agu","tag-fertilizer","tag-intrepid-potash","tag-ipi","tag-jjg","tag-mos","tag-mosaic-company","tag-phosphate","tag-pot","tag-potash","tag-potash-corp-of-saskatchewan","tag-weather","tag-wheat"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Buying Opportunities Arrive As Agricultural Stocks Limp Into 2012 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2012\/01\/04\/agricultural-stocks-limp-into-2012\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Buying Opportunities Arrive As Agricultural Stocks Limp Into 2012 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 1, 2012. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) In my last post updating the current list of buy candidates for the &#8220;commodity crash&#8221; portfolio, I neglected to include fertilizer stocks. Phosphate and potash producers &#8211; like Mosaic (MOS), Potash ... 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