{"id":8641,"date":"2011-12-09T04:58:44","date_gmt":"2011-12-09T09:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=8641"},"modified":"2011-12-09T04:59:39","modified_gmt":"2011-12-09T09:59:39","slug":"molycorp-downtrend-persists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/12\/09\/molycorp-downtrend-persists\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Review: Molycorp&#8217;s Downtrend Persists"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2011 has turned in to a tough year for rare earth producer Molycorp (MCP). After increasing almost 4 times in 2010 from its opening price, MCP has suffered a slow and steady decline since hitting all-time highs in early May. MCP is now down 44% for the year.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_8653\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8653\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/111208_MCP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/111208_MCP.png\" alt=\"Molycorp&#039;s persistent downtrend threatens the last line of strong support for the stock\" title=\"Molycorp&#039;s persistent downtrend threatens the last line of strong support for the stock\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-8653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/111208_MCP.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/111208_MCP-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-8653\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Molycorp&#039;s persistent downtrend threatens the last line of strong support for the stock<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" title=\"FreeStockCharts.com\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Molycorp&#8217;s weakness comes on the heels of consistently bullish commentary from the company&#8217;s CEO Mark Smith (for example see &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/305918-molycorp-delivers-strong-guidance-ahead-of-earnings-this-week\" title=\"Molycorp Delivers Strong Guidance Ahead of Earnings This Week\" target=\"_blank\">Molycorp Delivers Strong Guidance Ahead of Earnings This Week<\/a>&#8221; and\/or &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/11\/14\/molycorp-loses-big-despite-earnings\/\" title=\"Molycorp Loses Big Despite Reporting Strong Earnings\" target=\"_blank\">Molycorp Loses Big Despite Reporting Strong Earnings<\/a>&#8220;). Part of the problem is that the market is fixated on weakening prices in rare earths. Last month, the NY Times reported on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2011\/11\/17\/business\/global\/prices-of-rare-earth-metals-declining-sharply.html\" title=\"Prices of Rare Earth Metals Declining Sharply\" target=\"_blank\">the sharp declines in rare earth prices<\/a>. The most telling part of this article was the claim of production halts and an attempt to establish price floors: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Many Chinese companies have halted production this autumn in a bid to stem the decline in prices, several executives said. The Chinese Commerce Ministry has also blocked companies from exporting at prices that it deems too low, setting a minimum price for cerium exports, for example, of $70 a kilogram.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Price controls are never a good sign, especially for a market that was red hot just a few months ago. China could end up further distorting the market for rare earths in unexpected ways. In the meantime, when we add in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2011\/mr-11-28.html\" title=\"Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision\" target=\"_blank\">recent commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)<\/a> that &#8220;trade in Asia is now&#8230;seeing some effects of a significant slowing in economic activity in Europe&#8221; and China&#8217;s decision to cut reserve requirements, the market fundamentals for rare earth businesses weaken. A global slowdown in 2012 could be particularly destructive for companies like MCP in the middle of installing and expanding production capacity. The &#8220;good news&#8221; here is that valuable companies like Molycorp will likely be significantly undervalued and offer very compelling entry points to invest in a business that will rebound strongly from any future economic malaise.<\/p>\n<p>I am sticking by my core position in MCP (and other rare earth companies), but I carry put protection as a part of the portfolio. I also tend to sell some calls on rallies.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long MCP shares and puts; long and short MCP calls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2011 has turned in to a tough year for rare earth producer Molycorp (MCP). After increasing almost 4 times in 2010 from its opening price, MCP has suffered a slow and steady decline since hitting all-time highs in early May. MCP is now down 44% for the year. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Molycorp&#8217;s weakness comes on the &#8230; <a title=\"Chart Review: Molycorp&#8217;s Downtrend Persists\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/12\/09\/molycorp-downtrend-persists\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,62],"tags":[525,526,527,1597],"class_list":["post-8641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-technical-analysis","tag-mcp","tag-molycorp","tag-rare-earths-2","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chart Review: Molycorp&#039;s Downtrend Persists - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/12\/09\/molycorp-downtrend-persists\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chart Review: Molycorp&#039;s Downtrend Persists - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"2011 has turned in to a tough year for rare earth producer Molycorp (MCP). 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