{"id":852,"date":"2010-01-17T23:35:58","date_gmt":"2010-01-18T04:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=852"},"modified":"2010-01-18T00:38:06","modified_gmt":"2010-01-18T05:38:06","slug":"potential-climactic-top-intel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/17\/potential-climactic-top-intel\/","title":{"rendered":"Reaction to Intel&#8217;s Earnings Signals A Potential Climactic Top"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The market delivered another tepid response to another stellar earnings report from Intel (INTC). After October&#8217;s earnings report, <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/10\/14\/do-not-expect-encore-from-intel\/\">I argued that INTC was hitting peak performance<\/a>. Trading following that report seemed to support my expectation. Trading after Thursday night&#8217;s earnings looks like an exclamation point on what is a potential climactic top in INTC. Prior to earnings, INTC printed fresh 52-week (and 16-month) highs on 2.5x volume only to fall on even higher volume the next day with a gap down to a 3% one-day loss (note that Friday was an options expiration day which potentially exaggerated the trading action).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_863\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-863\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100115_INTC-daily.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100115_INTC-daily.jpg\" alt=\"Potential climactic top in INTC\" title=\"Potential climactic top in INTC\" width=\"525\" height=\"453\" class=\"size-full wp-image-863\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100115_INTC-daily.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100115_INTC-daily-300x258.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-863\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Potential climactic top in INTC<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>There is plenty to like in INTC&#8217;s report, but I agree with Karl Denninger in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/market-ticker.org\/archives\/1859-Intel-Nice-Performance,-But.....html\">Intel: Nice Performance, But&#8230;.<\/a>.&#8221; Specifically, I still think these historically high margins mark a peak, and the economic recovery will not support significant revenue growth in the next year or so.<\/p>\n<p>A quick review of history suggests why market participants may hesitate to bet on a significant improvement in results in the near or intermediate-term. After the last recession, INTC&#8217;s (total) revenues peaked in fiscal 2005 &#8211; about midway between the stock market&#8217;s bottom and the final end of the bull market. The stock topped out at the end of 2003, well ahead of the peak in revenues. See charts below (all financial data from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.gridstoneresearch.com\/\">Gridstone Research<\/a>):<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_853\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-853\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100117_INTCFiscalYrTotalRev.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100117_INTCFiscalYrTotalRev.jpg\" alt=\"During the last recovery from recession, Intel&#039;s revenues peaked in fiscal 2005\" title=\"During the last recovery from recession, Intel&#039;s revenues peaked in fiscal 2005\" width=\"525\" height=\"212\" class=\"size-full wp-image-853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100117_INTCFiscalYrTotalRev.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100117_INTCFiscalYrTotalRev-300x121.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-853\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">During the last recovery from recession, Intel's revenues peaked in fiscal 2005<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_854\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-854\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100115_INTC.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100115_INTC.jpg\" alt=\"INTC peaked quickly after the last recession\" title=\"INTC peaked quickly after the last recession\" width=\"525\" height=\"320\" class=\"size-full wp-image-854\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100115_INTC.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100115_INTC-300x182.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-854\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">INTC peaked quickly after the last recession<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n*<strong>All stock charts created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/Content\/Banners\/images\/88x31.gif\"><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The good news is that the quarterly decline in revenues has clearly ended as December&#8217;s revenue returned to levels from two years ago.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_856\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-856\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100117_INTCQtrlyTotRev.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100117_INTCQtrlyTotRev.jpg\" alt=\"The recovery in quarterly revenues continues\" title=\"The recovery in quarterly revenues continues\" width=\"525\" height=\"213\" class=\"size-full wp-image-856\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100117_INTCQtrlyTotRev.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/01\/100117_INTCQtrlyTotRev-300x121.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-856\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The recovery in quarterly revenues continues<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>At a forward P\/E of 12, INTC is not expensive. Combine that with a 2.7% dividend yield, and I can sympathize with an argument for holding the stock here. After all, when <a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/081028_LookingForSomethingDifferent.htm\">I last purchased INTC in the throes of fall 2008<\/a>, INTC had a forward P\/E of 12 and a dividend yield of 4%. However, at the time, I had a fairly optimistic expectation for price appreciation:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;&#8230;a likely scenario is that INTC rallies at 15-20% within a year, and I get paid an extra 4% to wait around; and the &#8220;long-term&#8221; scenario is that I nab a double within three to five years.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>INTC hit the one-year target and then some well ahead of schedule. <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/10\/14\/do-not-expect-encore-from-intel\/\">I was compelled to sell<\/a> because I no longer expected as strong a recovery as I did back in 2008. If INTC manages to make a new high (relatively soon), the near-term (technical) prospects for INTC&#8217;s stock should improve&#8230;but I am not expecting such a move.<\/p>\n<p>(On a side note, INTC is not the only prominent stock printing an ominous topping pattern. Click here for a review of <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/17\/potential-climactc-top-cat\/\">the potential climactic top forming in Caterpillar (CAT)<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The market delivered another tepid response to another stellar earnings report from Intel (INTC). After October&#8217;s earnings report, I argued that INTC was hitting peak performance. Trading following that report seemed to support my expectation. Trading after Thursday night&#8217;s earnings looks like an exclamation point on what is a potential climactic top in INTC. Prior &#8230; <a title=\"Reaction to Intel&#8217;s Earnings Signals A Potential Climactic Top\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/17\/potential-climactic-top-intel\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,62],"tags":[222,221],"class_list":["post-852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-technical-analysis","tag-intc","tag-intel"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Reaction to Intel&#039;s Earnings Signals A Potential Climactic Top - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/17\/potential-climactic-top-intel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reaction to Intel&#039;s Earnings Signals A Potential Climactic Top - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The market delivered another tepid response to another stellar earnings report from Intel (INTC). After October&#8217;s earnings report, I argued that INTC was hitting peak performance. Trading following that report seemed to support my expectation. Trading after Thursday night&#8217;s earnings looks like an exclamation point on what is a potential climactic top in INTC. Prior ... 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ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/01\/17\/potential-climactic-top-intel\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Reaction to Intel's Earnings Signals A Potential Climactic Top - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","og_description":"The market delivered another tepid response to another stellar earnings report from Intel (INTC). After October&#8217;s earnings report, I argued that INTC was hitting peak performance. Trading following that report seemed to support my expectation. Trading after Thursday night&#8217;s earnings looks like an exclamation point on what is a potential climactic top in INTC. Prior ... 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