{"id":8264,"date":"2011-11-16T02:03:29","date_gmt":"2011-11-16T07:03:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=8264"},"modified":"2011-11-16T02:03:29","modified_gmt":"2011-11-16T07:03:29","slug":"t2108-update-111115","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/11\/16\/t2108-update-111115\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – November 15, 2011 (Clarifying Trading Strategies)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 77% (17th day of the overbought period)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 31
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe morning began weakly but ended strongly. The close was quite a surprise given weakness in European stock markets and another sell-off in the euro (at the time of writing, the euro is STILL sliding). Moreover, volatility did not push higher as I expected. Overall, the indicators essentially ended flat with Monday’s close, and I have nothing new to say. If Wednesday does not deliver the strong down day I anticipated for the first half of this week, I will need to re-evaluate the near-term projections. Recall that the S&P 500 tends to ramp its gains after the overbought period reaches 20-30 days long<\/a>. T2108 is now on its 17th day in this overbought period.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, I decided to spend a few minutes clarifying my various outlooks and trading strategies. I have multiple timeframes with multiple trading strategies in play. I suspect readers may sometimes get confused or even conclude that I am saying all things at once. <\/p>\n

Overall T2108 Strategy<\/strong>
\nIn the short-term, my T2108 rules dominate any other outlook I have. I typically only use T2108 rules to determine swing trades which, hopefully, last at least 3 days and can last longer if conditions continue to support the trade. I will always be short-term bearish if T2108 is overbought (like now) and short-term bullish if T2108 is oversold.<\/p>\n

Remainder of 2011<\/strong>
\nThere are only 6 weeks to go in 2011, but I am still projecting a bullish end to the year…AFTER T2108 works off current overbought conditions. The longer T2108 remains overbought, the more difficult it will be for me to maintain a bullish year-end outlook. Note well this outlook overrides the statistical observation that the S&P 500’s performance from the beginning of the year to Labor Day is HIGHLY correlated with the S&P 500’s year-end performance (see “2007 Update for Post-Labor Day Analysis<\/a>“). This year’s performance until Labor Day was -9.7%. Current year-to-date performance is 0%. <\/p>\n

2012<\/strong>
\nI am bearish for 2012<\/a>, but I am not translating that into a price target or range. Such targets require crystal balls so far in advance. For example, one part of that prediction called for a sharp rally going INTO October. The sharp rally did occur..but only after a sharp sell-off into a one-day bear market on October 3rd. The S&P 500 gained 11% in October, but it has stalled out the last two weeks bouncing around in overbought conditions. <\/p>\n

While I will not operate with a specific price target for 2012, the bearish outlook does mean that I will be particularly aggressive in building shorts during any overbought periods. I will also hold bullish positions for a shorter time frame on bounces from any oversold conditions. As always, I will re-evaluate the projections if necessitated by changing technical conditions.<\/p>\n

Commodities<\/strong>
\nUnlike most everything else, I buy commodities on the fundamentals. In an era of competitive devaluation, money-printing, growing populations, and increasing wealth of the world’s middle classes, commodities are my favorite asset class. I have written several posts on the strategy here: “Preparing for Profits in a Resource-Constrained World: Part 1 of 2<\/a>” and “Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World \u2013 Rules and Picks (Part 2 of 2)<\/a>” (click here for archives<\/a> on related trades). I consider all dips buying opportunities for the long-term. However, the strategy is predicated on a major slowdown (or crash?) in China creating a historic buying opportunity (I think the last “bargains” for generations to come). Until then, I sell most of my commodity plays on rallies. Gold and silver are in a special category – I most interested in these precious metals as long as world’s central banks are papering over economic problems with increasing amounts of currency.<\/p>\n

Insider buying<\/strong>
\nInsiders do not always buy with good timing, but they almost always buy because they think the stock will “eventually” go higher. I look out for insider buys in stocks that are particularly unloved and beaten up. I will buy aggressively during oversold periods and “nibble” during overbought periods. My last post on insider plays was “The Market Is Ignoring These Insider Purchases, But You Should Not<\/a>.”<\/p>\n

I hope that clarifies my cross-current of trading strategies. I realize at certain times they may conflict; technical signals may conflict and force hard choices. In 2012, the chance for conflict will be high as I get much more wary about an extended sell-off. No matter what happens, note well that I am neither a permabear nor a permabull. I prefer to trade in bull markets, I do not relish economic calamity but will trade as bearishly as the times require, and, through it all, I am optimistic about the future.<\/p>\n


\nCharts below are the latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&P 500)<\/em>
\nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.
\n<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS, long puts and calls on VXX, short EUR\/USD, long GLD, SLV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 77% (17th day of … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,135,62],"tags":[24,65,25,226,1597],"class_list":["post-8264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-gold","tag-sp-500","tag-silver","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - November 15, 2011 (Clarifying Trading Strategies) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/11\/16\/t2108-update-111115\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - November 15, 2011 (Clarifying Trading Strategies) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 77% (17th day of ... 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