{"id":8132,"date":"2011-11-10T04:54:40","date_gmt":"2011-11-10T09:54:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=8132"},"modified":"2011-11-10T04:56:02","modified_gmt":"2011-11-10T09:56:02","slug":"t2108-update-111109","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/11\/10\/t2108-update-111109\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – November 9, 2010 (Almost Over, But Not Quite!)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 70% (thirteenth day of the overbought period)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 36
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nI never finished a T2108 Update I tried to write for Tuesday, November 8. It is just as well! I gave it the subtext “When Will the Overbought Period End?” and I drew out several scenarios. On Wednesday, Nov 9, T2108 dropped exactly to 70.00%. That’s right, EXACTLY on the edge of the overbought period.<\/p>\n

Wednesday’s trading action was a perfect reminder of just how fast an overbought period can come to a sudden end; in one day, T2108 went from extremely overbought at 85% to the edge. The trading action was also a great reminder of why I strongly advise against initiating new trading positions during overbought periods. Not only can the inevitable sell-off deliver quick losses, but the trader also then faces the nervous prospect of wondering just how far the sell-off could last. After all, technically, risk exists all the way back down to oversold territory (T2108 at 20% or lower).<\/p>\n

For now, I am still targeting the 50DMA as the lower bound for the S&P 500’s drop from overbought territory. With the index losing 3.7% in one day, it has now dropped BELOW the open on October 24 when T2108 first closed in overbought territory. The chart below shows how the 200DMA rejected the S&P 500 just as it had finally repositioned itself in the higher trading range.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 gets pushback<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The current loss of 2% for this overbought period places this period at the extremes of historical performance. My analysis<\/a> shows that only 7% of all overbought periods (since 1986) have performed as badly or worse than this one. Ironically, as of yesterday, the extreme I was considering for this period was one of duration not of negative performance. <\/p>\n

The stock market’s ability to levitate in this overbought period has been impressive. However, over the 13 days that T2108 has remained overbought, the S&P 500<\/a> printed a maximum closing gain of 2.9%. This performance is quite typical as a breakout to larger gains in an overbought period does not typically begin until after 20-30 days (see historical analysis<\/a>). In fact, the LARGEST gain on the S&P 500 for all overbought periods lasting 20 days or less is only about 4%. This is truly a high risk\/low reward setup for bullish positions.<\/p>\n

Note that T2108 is already well over the average and the median durations for an overbought period. 81% of all overbought periods have ended by 14 days; 88% by 19 days; and 94% by 25 days. After this point, the likelihood rapidly increases for the S&P 500 to jump past 5% in gains measured from the close of the first day of the oversold period.<\/p>\n

I find it interesting to note that hitting the upper part of trading range would represent a 10% gain and would mark a HIGH likelihood of maximum gains for the overbought period. Only 5% of all overbought periods have performed better at their points of maximum return.<\/p>\n

Now how about the time it takes to return to an overbought period? The historical analysis shows that the average is 31 days but the median is 7 days. In other words, in a bull market or upswing, traders do not have long to consider whether or not to bias trades toward the bullish side. A successful retest of the upward sloping 50DAMA for the S&P 500 would definitely represent one of those strong periods with brief interludes between overbought periods.<\/p>\n

Now, on to volatility. I am clearly going to lose my battle with VXX<\/a> this month. The volatility-related index soared 19% and is right on the edge of violating the bearish pattern I pointed out just last week. Although I have held SDS all this time, I learned a great lesson and reminder in taking profits on positions that are meant to be short-term. I am fine with doubling down since, at the time, if I had no position in VXX puts, I would have bought some.<\/p>\n

I end with a quick look at my trio of “euro panic” plays. All three, EWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund), SI<\/a> (Siemens), and DB<\/a> (Deutsche Bank) all sold off heavily (-7%, -7%, and 11%) and are at or near their respective 50DMAs. I was tempted to buy, but I decided to stick strictly to the “no buy” rule on short-term trades for T2108 overbought. Starting with EWG, I should be buying by week’s end. <\/p>\n


\nCharts below are the latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&P 500)<\/em>
\nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.
\n<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS, long puts on VXX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 70% (thirteenth day of … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[387,135,62],"tags":[344,735,736,65,577,226,1597,120],"class_list":["post-8132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-germany","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-db","tag-ewg","tag-ishares-msci-germany-index-fund-etf","tag-sp-500","tag-si","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vxx"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - November 9, 2010 (Almost Over, But Not Quite!) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/11\/10\/t2108-update-111109\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - November 9, 2010 (Almost Over, But Not Quite!) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 70% (thirteenth day of ... 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