{"id":80708,"date":"2026-04-25T16:46:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-25T23:46:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=80708"},"modified":"2026-04-26T15:29:51","modified_gmt":"2026-04-26T22:29:51","slug":"an-ai-cost-reckoning-awaits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/04\/25\/an-ai-cost-reckoning-awaits\/","title":{"rendered":"An AI Cost Reckoning Awaits"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A cost reckoning for AI is finally happening. A recent convergence of references and stories about the high cost of running AI systems at enterprise scale caught my attention over the last week. Together, they provide increasing evidence that the adoption of AI may hit a speedbump some time this year. Agentic AI has become impressively powerful, but the commensurate costs are gradually causing some pause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Cost Reckoning<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketplace.org\/story\/2026\/04\/24\/how-much-is-too-much-to-spend-on-ai-tools\">There&#8217;s no such thing as free AI<\/a>&#8221; Marketplace concluded that &#8220;AI consumption costs have been rising to levels that rival human labor costs&#8221; based on a review of a Goldman Sachs research survey. While the concerns may be short-term given <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/en\/newsroom\/press-releases\/2026-03-25-gartner-predicts-that-by-2030-performing-inference-on-an-llm-with-1-trillion-parameters-will-cost-genai-providers-over-90-percent-less-than-in-2025\">Gartner predicts a 90% reduction in token costs<\/a> for LLMs (large language models) between 2025 and 2030, lower costs for powerful technology can still drive consumption to budget-busting levels. Cheaper and more powerful AI unlocks more and more possibilities and those possibilities in turn drive more consumption. Thus, the percolating cost concerns are well-founded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/grdoOQ-sLfE\">CNBC ran a segment on &#8220;over-inflated&#8221; demand for AI<\/a>. The sensationalistic title oversold a story about unsustainable demand. Still, I took note of some important proof points on the cost reckoning for AI:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Uber Technologies&#8217; (UBER) CTO said the company&#8217;s AI coding tools have already burned through its full-year AI budget (April 16, 2026).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Goldman Sachs (GS) research claims that companies are overrunning inference budgets by orders of magnitude; AI costs will rival engineering headcount in 2026. {Marketplace referenced the same study}.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;Tokenmaxxing&#8221; is creating perverse incentives to needlessly consume tokens to demonstrate AI adoption. {This was CNBC&#8217;s direct reference to over-inflated demand}.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Anthropic removed OpenClaw from flat-fee subscriptions in Claude. A single $200 Anthropic plan can burn from $2000 to $5000 in compute. Thus, Anthropic is moving enterprise customers to token-based plans and away from seat-based plans.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>CNBC anchor and columnist Deirdre Bosa concluded that &#8220;the companies that price for real demand are going to look different from the ones that didn&#8217;t.&#8221; In other words, costs are going up and everyone in the ecosystem will start to bear the true costs of AI consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"AI Demand Is Inflated And Only Anthropic Is Being Realistic\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/grdoOQ-sLfE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bring Back the Humans<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>These costs undermine the most grandiose predictions of a future with no human employees. A future here AI writes all the software&#8230;and presumably AI Agents also buy and use all this software. Today&#8217;s companies in certain industries that are rushing to replace humans en masse with AI or even dreaming about such a move may soon run into the harsh reality of a cost reckoning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">2024: Developers are getting replaced by AI.<br>2026: AIs are getting replaced by developers.<br><br>We are so back. \ud83d\ude2d <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KYewW9F3mM\">pic.twitter.com\/KYewW9F3mM<\/a><\/p>&mdash; JNS (@_devJNS) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_devJNS\/status\/2046623348231164281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 21, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">CFOs realizing that their AI token budget is going to be higher than the salaries of the people they laid off <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XAkIJAkTGm\">pic.twitter.com\/XAkIJAkTGm<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Boring_Business (@BoringBiz_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BoringBiz_\/status\/2046789621216936146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 22, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I have increasingly wondered what will happen to AI consumption once consumers face the real costs of using AI-based systems. At some point, venture capital will stop subsidizing the consumption and distribution of tokens that are the lifeblood of AI systems. The cost reckoning awaits and the providers and users of AI may experience business shocks if they are not preparing now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, the frenzied rush to AGI (Artificial Generative Intelligence) will motivate the biggest spenders in the industry to keep spending. Venture capital is also chasing AI innovations in a gold rush moment for tech spending. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.visualcapitalist.com\/venture-capital-ai-vs-everything-else\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">According to Visual Capitalist<\/a>, AI&#8217;s share of venture capital as quickly gone from 20-30% in 2022 and 2023 to over 50% in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speculative spending may be enough to keep the boom going even as companies start to address the cost reckoning in AI. The fresh all-time highs in my favorite AI bundle, the Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ), suggests the frenzy just accelerated. I continue to hold THNQ as my core AI investment.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"921\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260425_THNQ-Robo-Global-Artificial-Intelligence-ETF.png\" alt=\"The Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ) recently broke out to an all-time high. THNQ quickly tested the breakout as support and followed up with a 3.7% surge and fresh all-time high.\" class=\"wp-image-80743\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260425_THNQ-Robo-Global-Artificial-Intelligence-ETF.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260425_THNQ-Robo-Global-Artificial-Intelligence-ETF-768x468.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260425_THNQ-Robo-Global-Artificial-Intelligence-ETF-1320x805.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ) recently broke out to an all-time high. THNQ quickly tested the breakout as support and followed up with a 3.7% surge and fresh all-time high.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long THNQ<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A cost reckoning for AI is finally happening. A recent convergence of references and stories about the high cost of running AI systems at enterprise scale caught my attention over the last week. Together, they provide increasing evidence that the adoption of AI may hit a speedbump some time this year. Agentic AI has become &#8230; <a title=\"An AI Cost Reckoning Awaits\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/04\/25\/an-ai-cost-reckoning-awaits\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":80743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3252,219],"tags":[3251,3190,3453,3450],"class_list":["post-80708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence","category-high-tech","tag-ai","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-robo-global-artificial-intelligence-etf","tag-thnq"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>An AI Cost Reckoning Awaits - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A cost reckoning for AI is finally happening. 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The high cost of running AI systems at enterprise scale caught my attention over the last week.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/04\/25\/an-ai-cost-reckoning-awaits\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/04\/25\/an-ai-cost-reckoning-awaits\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/04\/25\/an-ai-cost-reckoning-awaits\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260425_THNQ-Robo-Global-Artificial-Intelligence-ETF.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260425_THNQ-Robo-Global-Artificial-Intelligence-ETF.png","width":1510,"height":921,"caption":"The Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ) recently broke out to an all-time high. THNQ quickly tested the breakout as support and followed up with a 3.7% surge and fresh all-time high."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/04\/25\/an-ai-cost-reckoning-awaits\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"An AI Cost Reckoning Awaits"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/","name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","description":"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0","name":"Dr. Duru","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","width":900,"height":100,"caption":"Dr. Duru"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/onetwentytwo","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/","https:\/\/x.com\/drduru"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80708"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80708\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80782,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80708\/revisions\/80782"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}