{"id":79540,"date":"2026-03-30T11:42:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T18:42:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=79540"},"modified":"2026-03-30T11:42:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T18:42:31","slug":"what-happened-in-the-housing-market-spring-cleaning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/03\/30\/what-happened-in-the-housing-market-spring-cleaning\/","title":{"rendered":"What Happened in the Housing Market &#8211; Spring Cleaning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"housing-market-intro-and-summary\"><strong>Housing Market Intro and Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The housing market is entering its spring selling season, but for me this moment is more about spring cleaning. The seasonal trade in home builders and housing-related optimism has run its course far sooner and far weaker than I expected. What should have been a period of improving momentum has instead become a time to clear out invalid assumptions, reassess risk, and accept that the backdrop for housing data has changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That reset starts with releasing old optimism. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/03\/30\/oversold-conditions-not-enough-for-war-weary-market-the-market-breadth\/\">A convergence of headwinds<\/a>, like rising interest rates, affordability pressures, uneven demand, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, has slowed the housing market enough to overwhelm the usual seasonal support. Even where the data show pockets of resilience, the broader picture is no longer strong enough to justify the same constructive outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So while the housing market moves into its spring selling season, I am using this review as an exercise in spring cleaning: ending the seasonal trade, clearing away expectations that no longer fit the data, and adjusting to the reality of a market that has become more fragile and more constrained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is a summary for March&#8217;s housing market update:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color:#e9f3ff\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The traditional spring boost in housing is fading early, as rising mortgage rates and cautious buyers disrupt what is usually the strongest season for the market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>An earnings report from a key builder confirmed expectations for ongoing softness in the housing market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Builder sentiment improved modestly in March, but affordability pressures, labor constraints, and limited lot supply continued to restrain momentum.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Single-family housing starts, permits, and new home sales all showed softer conditions, reinforcing a cautious outlook for the spring selling period.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Existing home sales rebounded in February, but inventory, pricing pressures, and regional divergence kept the broader housing market mixed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mortgage-rate volatility remained a central constraint, while affordability trends continued to shape buyer demand, pricing strategy, and sales activity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"housing-stocks\"><strong>Housing Stocks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) returned to a bear market as interest rates rose through most of March. The war against Iran set off a cascade of economic setbacks including dampening sentiment among potential home buyers. The widening uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment has brought an early end to <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/01\/01\/how-home-builder-stocks-trade-in-a-seasonal-pattern-2025-update\/\">the seasonally strong period of trading in the stocks of home builders<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the time of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/02\/28\/what-happened-in-the-housing-market-new-vs-old\/\">the last housing market review<\/a>, ITB was up 11.7% year-to-date compared to the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 0.5% gain. At the time of writing, fortunes have leveled out for the year. ITB is down 6.9% year-to-date, and the S&amp;P 500 is down 6.7%. Since the start of the seasonal period (October 31, 2025), ITB is down 10.8% while the S&amp;P 500 is down 6.6%. ITB could of course regain an advantage in the next 1 to 2 months of the seasonal timeline, but the risk\/reward for such a bet looks poor.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"921\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) is not only back to a bear market but also it trades at a near 10-month low.\" class=\"wp-image-80198\" title=\"iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-768x468.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_ITB-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-1320x805.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) is not only back to a bear market but also it trades at a near 10-month low.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The latest disappointing earnings report from KB Homes (KBH) forced me to reevaluate the risk\/reward of the remaining time in the 2025\/2026 seasonal trade. I described my analysis and reasoning in &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4886566?gt=b2e4bda68d565c6b\">KB Home&#8217;s Disappointing Q1 Report Ends The Seasonal Trade<\/a>.&#8221; While I will continue to monitor the sector for opportunistic trades, I am assuming that the official end of the seasonal period of April or May will result in a rare double loss for home builders, an absolute decline and underperformance relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_KBH-KB-Home.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"921\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_KBH-KB-Home.png\" alt=\"KB Home (KBH) fell just 1.6% post-earnings but is struggling to hold 9-month lows.\" class=\"wp-image-80202\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_KBH-KB-Home.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_KBH-KB-Home-768x468.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_KBH-KB-Home-1320x805.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>KB Home (KBH) fell just 1.6% post-earnings but is struggling to hold 9-month lows.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>As a reminder, see below for a view of the seasonal outperformance of ITB over the S&amp;P 500. This view uses the <a href=\"https:\/\/stockcharts.com\/freecharts\/seasonality.php?symbol=ITB&amp;compare=SPY\">seasonality tool<\/a> from StockCharts. <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1846\" height=\"613\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20260227_ITB-Seasonality-vs-SPY-from-2006-to-2025.png\" alt=\"ITB seasonality vs SPY from 2006 to 2025\" class=\"wp-image-79367\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20260227_ITB-Seasonality-vs-SPY-from-2006-to-2025.png 1846w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20260227_ITB-Seasonality-vs-SPY-from-2006-to-2025-768x255.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20260227_ITB-Seasonality-vs-SPY-from-2006-to-2025-1536x510.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/20260227_ITB-Seasonality-vs-SPY-from-2006-to-2025-1320x438.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1846px) 100vw, 1846px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>ITB seasonality vs SPY from 2006 to 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Click to Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"housing-data\"><strong>Housing Data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"home-builder-confidence-the-housing-market-index-february-2022-chart-needs-updating\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonhousing.org\/2026\/03\/builder-sentiment-inches-higher-but-affordability-concerns-persist\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Home Builder Confidence: The Housing Market<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonhousing.org\/2025\/12\/builder-sentiment-inches-higher-but-ends-the-year-in-negative-territory\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Index<\/a> &#8211; March, 2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased 1 point to 38 in March from a 1-point upwardly revised 37 in February. Builders cited the familiar  affordability pressures from construction costs and shortages of buildable lots and labor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Each of the HMI components increased in March. The increases were particularly important for &#8220;Single-Family: Next Six Months&#8221;, a measure of expectations for future sales, and the &#8220;Traffic of Prospective Buyers&#8221; which were in downtrends going into March. This small reprieve is a sign of budding interest in the spring selling season. However, the interest is too tepid to save the seasonal trade. The &#8220;Single-Family: Present&#8221; component has bounced between 41 and 42 since November.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260318_Housing-Market-Index-HMI-and-University-of-Michigan-Index-of-Consumer-Sentiment.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260318_Housing-Market-Index-HMI-and-University-of-Michigan-Index-of-Consumer-Sentiment.png\" alt=\"Housing Market Index (HMI) and University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment\" class=\"wp-image-79875\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.6139630390143738;width:779px;height:auto\" title=\"The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) and the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Housing Market Index (HMI) and University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em><strong>Source for data: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nahb.org\/News-and-Economics\/Housing-Economics\/Indices\/Housing-Market-Index\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NAHB<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/tables.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the University of Michigan<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both HMI and consumer confidence are drifting. I still expect the two to converge, but it is not clear whether that convergence will occur at higher or lower levels.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260318_Housing-Market-Index-HMI-Components-and-University-of-Michigan-Index-of-Consumer-Sentiment.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"371\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260318_Housing-Market-Index-HMI-Components-and-University-of-Michigan-Index-of-Consumer-Sentiment.png\" alt=\"Housing Market Index (HMI) Components and University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment\" class=\"wp-image-79877\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.619718309859155;width:805px;height:auto\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Housing Market Index (HMI) Components and University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>While pricing pressures remain high for builders, they continue to rely on pricing adjustments and incentives. The share of builders cutting prices increased from 36% in February to 37% in March. The average price reduction once again held at 6%. The use of sales incentives was 64% in March, down from 65% in February and extending the streak above 60% to 12 straight months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Northeast was the only region with a month-over-month decline in its HMI. The gains in March for the South and the Midwest suggest that builders are becoming incrementally more hopeful for the spring selling season. The Northeast region fell from 43 to 42 for a new low for the year. The Midwest rebounded by 5 points to a high of the year at 46. The South edged up by 1 point to 36 for a high of the year. The West held flat at its low for the year at 30. Springtime optimism has failed to arrive out west.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"new-residential-construction-single-family-housing-starts\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst_202601.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">New Residential Construction (Single-Family Housing Starts)<\/a> &#8211; January, 2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>{The Census Bureau is still catching up on data reporting after the government shutdown. Housing starts data for January, 2026 became available at the time of writing}<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Single-family housing starts decreased in January. January&#8217;s 935K in single-family starts represents a 2.8% month-over-month decrease but a 6.5% year-over-year decrease. A range between 800K and 1M remains in place.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260219_Housing-Starts-Jan-2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"465\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260219_Housing-Starts-Jan-2026.png\" alt=\"US. Bureau of the Census, Privately Owned Housing Starts: 1-Unit Structures [HOUST1F], first retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 12, 2026\" class=\"wp-image-79696\" title=\"Housing starts\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260219_Housing-Starts-Jan-2026.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260219_Housing-Starts-Jan-2026-768x271.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>US. Bureau of the Census, Privately Owned Housing Starts: 1-Unit Structures [HOUST1F], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=19ihv#\">first retrieved from FRED<\/a>, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 12, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The recent recovery in <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/PERMIT1\">building permits<\/a> (new privately-owned housing units authorized in permit-issuing places)&nbsp;have stalled out since June, 2025. Single-family authorizations were 873K, a 0.9% month-over-month decrease from December and an 11.6% year-over-year decline. The slowdown in permits aligns with the flattening builder sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There were wide divergences in regional starts of single-family homes. Month-over-month the changes were -33.3%, +11.7%, -4.6%, and +2.9% for the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West respectively. Year-over-year the changes were -6.4%, +7.5%, -1.5%, and -23.4% for the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrs\/pdf\/newressales_202601.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">New Residential Sales (Single-Family)<\/a> &#8211; January, 2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>{The Census Bureau is still catching up on data and analysis interrupted by last year&#8217;s government shutdown: &#8220;The February report is scheduled for release on TBD.&#8221;}<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonhousing.org\/2026\/03\/new-home-sales-decline-in-january-on-weather-disruptions\/\">The NAHB blamed weather for the plunge in January&#8217;s new home sales<\/a>. Sales declined 17.6% from December to January, while falling 11.3% year-over-year to 587K new single-family homes sold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-and-research\/newsroom\/news\/2026\/03\/19\/february-new-home-purchase-mortgage-applications-increased-0.9-percent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Mortgage Bankers Association estimated<\/a> February sales as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;&#8230;new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 641,000 units in February 2026&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The seasonally adjusted estimate for February is a decrease of 3.3 percent from the January pace of 663,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 57,000 new home sales in February 2026, a decrease of 1.7 percent from 58,000 new home sales in January.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>(Note that the MBA&#8217;s baseline for January is based on their own estimate and not the Census Bureau&#8217;s data). The previous resilience in new home sales was likely from aggressive price concessions, incentives, and smaller home sizes (for example see <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4875181?gt=883c8956eaaead83\">Taylor Morrison&#8217;s description of the competitive environment<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Declining mortgage rates through January and February should have put a floor under demand. Now rising rates in March promise to slow the sales pace further. KB Home&#8217;s earnings also reveal persistent sluggishness exacerbated by the war.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260319_New-home-sales-January-2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"465\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260319_New-home-sales-January-2026.png\" alt=\"US. Bureau of the Census, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], first retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 19, 2026\" class=\"wp-image-79885\" style=\"width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"new home sales\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260319_New-home-sales-January-2026.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260319_New-home-sales-January-2026-768x271.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>US. Bureau of the Census, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=19iju#\">first retrieved from FRED<\/a>, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 19, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>For January, <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/?g=1hL9L\">the median price<\/a> decreased to $400,500, marking a 4.5% sequential decline and a 6.8% year-over-year decline. The presumed $400,000 floor barely survived this latest pricing cycle, but the current downtrend suggests this floor will give way at some point this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The share of homes priced under $300,000 held at 19% in January. Homes priced $300,000 to $399,999 rose from 25% to 29% share of sales. All price ranges from $400,000 to $999,999 shifted modestly month-over-month. The million dollar and higher homes declined to 6% share in January from 8% in December. The shift in mix helped to drive down the median price. I expect an on-going shift in mix to the lower price ranges given the press for affordable homes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>December inventory was 474K, and January inventory increased to 476K. The months\u2019 supply increased from 8.0 months to 9.7 months. Compared to a year ago, inventory is down from 496K and months\u2019 supply is above the prior year\u2019s 9.0 months. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/HNFSEPUSSA\">absolute inventory<\/a>&nbsp;increased month-over-month. Overall, inventory remains well off the last peak from the 2025 spring selling season and a downtrend from that peak is in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regionally, January sales changed month-over-month as follows: Northeast -44.7%, Midwest -33.9%, South -8.1%, and West -21.6%. On a year-over-year basis, the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West changed 0.0%, +18.0%, -8.8%, and -28.7% respectively. Given the Northeast is much smaller than the other three regions, I am not convinced weather is a sufficient explanation for January&#8217;s plunge. The West did not suffer extreme weather events. Thus, February&#8217;s sales will be a critical proof point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"existing-home-sales-february-2026\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/newsroom\/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-increase-in-february\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Existing Home Sales<\/a> &#8211; February, 2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Existing home sales increased in February. However, the recent disconnect between new and existing home sales prevents me from extrapolating the significance of this rebound. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 1.7% month-over-month increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09M, alongside a 1.4% year-over-year decline. At the same time, affordability improved to levels last seen in March 2022 per the NAR\u2019s Housing Affordability Index.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260310_Existing-home-sales-February-2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"465\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260310_Existing-home-sales-February-2026.png\" alt=\"Existing home sales increased in February.\" class=\"wp-image-79673\" title=\"existing home sales\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260310_Existing-home-sales-February-2026.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260310_Existing-home-sales-February-2026-768x271.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Existing home sales increased in February.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">(For historical data from 1999 to 2014,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/08\/140820_ExistingHomeSales.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">click here<\/a>. For historical data from 2014 to 2018,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/180401_ExistingHomeSales.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">click here<\/a>) <strong>Source for chart: National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales\u00a9 [EXHOSLUSM495S], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/EXHOSLUSM495S\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, March 10, 2026<\/strong><br><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eyeonhousing.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Exising_1-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eyeonhousing.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Exising_1-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"existing home sales since 1999\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonhousing.org\/2026\/02\/existing-home-sales-retreat-amid-low-inventory\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">National Association of Home Builders<\/a> (the NAHB&#8217;s record of the NAR existing homes data &#8211; data back to 1999 available in the addendum at the end of the post)<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Total housing inventory in February was 1.29M units, up 2.4% from January and up 4.9% from February 2025. The NAR reported a 3.8-month supply of unsold inventory, unchanged from last month and up from 3.6 months one year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/HOSMEDUSM052N\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The median sales price of an existing home<\/a> was $398,000 in February, up 0.3% from one year ago ($396,800). February marked the 32nd consecutive month of year-over-year price increases even as price growth decelerates. Affordability gains came from wage growth and a decline in mortgage rates and, according to the NAR, &#8220;helped pull buyers back to the market&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <em>REALTORS\u00ae Confidence Index<\/em> showed a median time on market of 47 days in February, up from 46 days in January and 42 days in February 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NAR also reported that first-time homebuyers represented 34% of sales (up from 31% in January and 31% one year ago). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Month-over-month sales rose in the Midwest, South and West, and fell in the Northeast. The regional year-over-year changes were: Northeast -4.1%, Midwest -4.1%, South +0.5%, West -1.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/EXSFHSUSM495S\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Single-family existing home sales<\/a> increased 2.5% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.73M and declined 1.1% year-over-year. The median price of a single-family home was $401,800, an increase of 0.2% from last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.car.org\/aboutus\/mediacenter\/newsreleases\/2026releases\/Feb2026sales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">California Existing Single-Family Home<\/a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.car.org\/aboutus\/mediacenter\/newsreleases\/2025releases\/oct2025sales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.car.org\/aboutus\/mediacenter\/newsreleases\/2025releases\/sept2025sales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sales<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 February, 2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.car.org\/-\/media\/CAR\/Images\/Learn-and-Thrive\/Infographics\/2026-01-Sales-and-Price.png?h=2064&amp;w=3000&amp;hash=471FE80BEFB03F90D2B28B00F5EE110E\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.car.org\/-\/media\/CAR\/Images\/Learn-and-Thrive\/Infographics\/2026-02-Sales-and-Price.png?h=2097&amp;w=3000&amp;hash=A202E89BC2013ABB167F286013531DD0\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After declining sharply in January, California existing home sales increased in February. The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) reported that existing single-family home sales rebounded 7.0% in February to 274,820, down 0.3% year-over-year. The median price increased 0.9% month-over-month and up 0.2% year-over-year to $830,370. The statewide median price per square foot was $424, up from $421 a year ago. The sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 99.3% in February, up from 98.0% a month ago and a year ago. This price increase comes on the tail of an ongoing downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>February&#8217;s unsold inventory index (UII), which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, decreased from 4.4 in January to 4.0 in February, unchanged from 4.0 a year ago. Total active listings rose from January 2025 but fell year-over-year for the first time in 25 months. The C.A.R. used the end of this streak to raise a cautionary flag over the market: &#8220;the first dip in supply in slightly more than two years suggests that some homeowners may be delaying their listing decisions as mortgage rates continue to climb amid a tense geopolitical environment that has clouded the near-term economic outlook.&#8221; The organization went on to estimate that &#8220;the housing supply growth rate may begin to moderate in the months ahead.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The median time on market increased from 26 days a year ago to 29 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>January was a broadly softer month of sales in California while February was nearly the opposite. Still, overall, the California market for existing home sales remains firmly trapped in a tight range extending for three and a half years and running.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Georgia&#8217;s Housing Market &#8211; February, 2025<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The following infographic was created from Notebook LLM based on the January <a href=\"https:\/\/garealtor.com\/february-housing-indicators\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Georgia housing data posted by the Georgia Association of Realtors<\/a>. (Note that the GAR does not clarify whether the reported percentage changes are month-over-month, year-over-year, or a mix).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260325_Georgia-housing-market-infographic-February-2026-scaled.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1429\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260325_Georgia-housing-market-infographic-February-2026-scaled.png\" alt=\"Georgia housing market infographic - February, 2026\" class=\"wp-image-80001\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260325_Georgia-housing-market-infographic-February-2026-scaled.png 2560w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260325_Georgia-housing-market-infographic-February-2026-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260325_Georgia-housing-market-infographic-February-2026-1536x857.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260325_Georgia-housing-market-infographic-February-2026-2048x1143.png 2048w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260325_Georgia-housing-market-infographic-February-2026-1320x737.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Georgia housing market infographic &#8211; February, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>The Association noted again that &#8220;housing supply across the state remains tight&#8221; even inventories have been increasing lately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Home closing thoughts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond the monthly data, several housing-related developments continue to shape affordability, supply, and market structure. Below are some of the more notable stories that caught my interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Affordable Housing with Childcare<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In the mountains of Colorado, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ruralhomes.co\/early-childhood-initiative\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Rural Homes Early Childhood Initiative<\/a> combines affordable housing with child care services. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketplace.org\/story\/2026\/02\/27\/in-this-colorado-town-affordable-housing-doubles-as-day-cares\">According to Marketplace<\/a>, &#8220;the region\u2019s early childhood council recruited and trained providers. The builder reduced costs through grants, state dollars and low-cost construction loans&#8221;.&nbsp;Child care providers get subsidized rent with the option to buy. Bundling services with housing is taking on more and more creative and useful forms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Solving Housing Affordability with Build-For-Rent<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/03\/04\/nx-s1-5703574\/home-rent-housing-crisis-ownership\">According to NPR<\/a>, &#8220;About&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/eyeonhousing.org\/2026\/01\/soft-conditions-for-single-family-built-for-rent\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">7% of new single-family houses<\/a>&nbsp;hitting the market are now for rent, not sale. More than&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.point2homes.com\/news\/research\/build-to-rent-completions-reach-historic-high.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">10 times<\/a>&nbsp;as many &#8220;build-to-rent&#8221; homes were completed in the U.S. in 2024 as compared with a decade earlier. Moreover, a survey indicates that a permanent class of renters has developed among these households: &#8220;A recent survey of 1,000 Americans renting single-family homes conducted by the Center for Generational Kinetics, a research center studying the different mindsets between generations, found that only 8% of those renters defined the American dream as owning a home.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Real Estate Listing Battle<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I have never understood the turf battles over real estate listings. It is a market that should be free and open, but it is not. Recently, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketplace.org\/story\/2026\/03\/03\/zillow-and-compass-clash-over-online-real-estate-listings\">Marketplace interviewed the author of a Business Insider article<\/a> reviewing the latest listing battles. From the lead:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThis really is a fight for control of real estate listings, and it could determine where you find your next home,\u201d said James Rodriguez. \u201cAt the end of the day, it could be a more complicated home search.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Latest on the YIMBY Movement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In February <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/planet-money\/2026\/02\/24\/g-s1-111204\/is-the-yimby-movement-doomed\">Planet Money took a deep look at the YIMBY movement<\/a>. YIMBY stands for Yes In My Backyard. The movement grew out of direct resistance to the NIMBY movement which actively blocks development and new construction. The resulting battle is one between achieving more affordable and accessible housing for more people versus the enduring desire to preserve a neighborhood&#8217;s status quo and drive up values through exclusivity. From the lead:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>&#8220;How irreconcilable is the clash between maintaining or building middle-class wealth on the one hand, and making housing more affordable to a wide swath of renters and would-be owners on the other? Are the politics just inherently stacked against meaningful development efforts that would make housing more affordable? In other words, is the YIMBY movement doomed to fail?&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The article does not offer a final recommendation (the issue is complex!). Instead, it ends with an important observation: as more mayors see the negative impacts of poor housing options, as more families watch their kids forced to move away for affordable housing, and as more families struggle to find affordable living options for elderly parents, more and more people will consider YIMBY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Spotlight on Mortgage Rates&#8230;And Affordability<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-and-research\/newsroom\/all-news\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)<\/a> reported two weeks with a decrease in mortgage applications and two weekly increases for the month of February. For all of January, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/news-and-research\/newsroom\/news\/2026\/02\/19\/january-new-home-purchase-mortgage-applications-increased-2-percent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">new home purchase mortgage applications increased 2% year-over-year<\/a> and surged 19% sequentially (not seasonally adjusted). The MBA sees consistency across the new home sales and housing start numbers. However, I think March will deliver a blow to their otherwise positive expectations. The spike in mortgage rates in March tells nearly the entire story of the negative turn for the housing market.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_30-Year-Fixed-Rate-Mortgage-Average-in-the-United-States.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"465\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_30-Year-Fixed-Rate-Mortgage-Average-in-the-United-States.png\" alt=\"Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States [MORTGAGE30US], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; March 30, 2026.\" class=\"wp-image-80216\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_30-Year-Fixed-Rate-Mortgage-Average-in-the-United-States.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/20260330_30-Year-Fixed-Rate-Mortgage-Average-in-the-United-States-768x271.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States [MORTGAGE30US], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/MORTGAGE30US#\">retrieved from FRED<\/a>, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; March 30, 2026.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Housing Market Intro and Summary The housing market is entering its spring selling season, but for me this moment is more about spring cleaning. The seasonal trade in home builders and housing-related optimism has run its course far sooner and far weaker than I expected. What should have been a period of improving momentum has &#8230; <a title=\"What Happened in the Housing Market &#8211; Spring Cleaning\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/03\/30\/what-happened-in-the-housing-market-spring-cleaning\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":69279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,59,35],"tags":[3127,1933,3184,2426,1053,2220,2873,3382,1149,291,3898,1160,2771,1410,3100,1206,146,147,3186,3458,3185,2689,1162,1159,1161,2231,1674,1960,4004],"class_list":["post-79540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-earnings","category-economy","category-housing","tag-active-listings","tag-affordability","tag-affordable-housing","tag-c-a-r","tag-california","tag-california-association-of-realtors","tag-consumer-sentiment","tag-existing-home-median-sales-price","tag-existing-home-sales","tag-georgia","tag-georgia-association-of-realtors","tag-hmi","tag-housing-inventory","tag-housing-starts","tag-ishares-us-home-construction-etf","tag-itb","tag-kb-home","tag-kbh","tag-mba","tag-mortgage-applications","tag-mortgage-bankers-association","tag-mortgage-rates","tag-nahb","tag-nahbwells-fargo-housing-market-index","tag-national-association-of-home-builders","tag-new-home-median-sales-price","tag-new-home-sales","tag-seasonality","tag-yimby"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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