{"id":78970,"date":"2026-02-28T17:20:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T01:20:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=78970"},"modified":"2026-03-01T09:25:47","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T17:25:47","slug":"what-happened-in-the-housing-market-new-vs-old","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2026\/02\/28\/what-happened-in-the-housing-market-new-vs-old\/","title":{"rendered":"What Happened in the Housing Market: New vs Old"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Housing Market Intro and Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The housing market is currently defined by a split between new vs old, new home sales and existing home sales. Data on builder stocks, housing starts, and new home sales tell a diverging story from existing home sales data across the country. Homebuilder equities remain sensitive to policy headlines but continue to trade within a seasonally strong window. Builder confidence has softened, yet single-family construction and new home sales have shown signs of stabilization and resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, existing home sales declined sharply in January at both the national and state levels. California reported a broad retreat in sales and prices, while regional data across the country showed month-over-month and year-over-year weakness. Inventory trends also differ across segments, with new home supply drifting toward balance while existing inventory dynamics vary by region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mortgage rates, affordability measures, builder incentives, and regional disparities all factor into the evolving picture. The sections below review housing stocks, builder sentiment, construction activity, new home sales, and existing home data to examine how the new vs old divide is shaping the current housing market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is a summary for February’s housing market update:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  • Housing stocks remain resilient, with the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) outperforming the S&P 500 and holding above its bear market threshold despite policy headlines and recent volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Builder confidence declined for a second consecutive month, signaling affordability pressures even as pricing concessions and incentives stabilize.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Single-family housing starts rebounded in December, suggesting improving momentum for new construction despite year-over-year declines.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • New home sales remained elevated through year-end, supported by mortgage rates below 6%, price incentives, and smaller home sizes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Existing home sales fell sharply in January, with national and regional weakness highlighting a divergence in new vs old housing activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Inventory dynamics differ across segments, as new home supply trends toward balance while existing home markets face regional softness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • California and Georgia data reinforce broader signs of softness in existing home markets despite improving affordability metrics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The emergence of rent now, pay later schemes indicate troubling conditions for lower income households.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

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