{"id":7766,"date":"2011-10-19T09:29:05","date_gmt":"2011-10-19T13:29:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=7766"},"modified":"2011-10-19T09:29:05","modified_gmt":"2011-10-19T13:29:05","slug":"solar-warnings-season-begins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/10\/19\/solar-warnings-season-begins\/","title":{"rendered":"Solar Warnings Season Begins"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/300356-solar-warnings-season-begins\" title=\"Solar Warnings Season Begins\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Solar stocks have been in freefall since last peaking in the Spring. There was some lingering hope that demand would pick up in the fourth quarter as companies rushed to take advantage of fading subsidies, but Specialized Technology Resources, or STR Holdings, Inc. (STRI), likely squashed those hopes with <a href=\"http:\/\/ir.strholdings.com\/phoenix.zhtml?c=222608&#038;p=irol-newsArticle&#038;ID=1617969&#038;highlight=\" title=\"STR Holdings, Inc. Comments on Third Quarter and Full Year 2011 Guidance\" target=\"_blank\">an earnings warning on the evening of October 17th<\/a>. STRI held firm on its revenue guidance but shaved its earnings guidance by 6-17% and withdrew annual guidance. Most damaging is the company&#8217;s assessment of the current market and confirmation of deteriorating conditions:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_7775\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7775\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/111017_STRI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/111017_STRI.png\" alt=\"STR Holdings is trading at all-time lows\" title=\"STR Holdings is trading at all-time lows\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-7775\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/111017_STRI.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/111017_STRI-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7775\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">STR Holdings is trading at all-time lows<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The most influential warning may come from First Solar (FSLR). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_7776\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7776\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/111017_FSLR.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/111017_FSLR.png\" alt=\"First Solar&#039;s death march to 4 1\/2 year lows\" title=\"First Solar&#039;s death march to 4 1\/2 year lows\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-7776\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/111017_FSLR.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/111017_FSLR-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7776\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">First Solar&#039;s death march to 4 1\/2 year lows<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for all charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>At this point in a price collapse, I would normally think an earnings warning would be a major relief and generate a potentially large relief rally. Just last week (Oct 12th), <a href=\"http:\/\/notablecalls.blogspot.com\/2011\/10\/first-solar-nasdaqfslr-ticonderoga-cuts\" target=\"_blank\">Ticonderoga issued the lowest price target I have yet seen on FSLR at $40 over the next 12 months<\/a>. Negativity seems to have reached its highest of heights. However, <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q\/ao?s=FSLR+Analyst+Opinion\" title=\"Yahoo!Finance Analyst Opinion\" target=\"_blank\">there are still 12 strong buys and 11 buys on FSLR out of a total of 42 analyst recommendations<\/a>. In other words, there remains plenty of room for more negativity. An earnings warning may release a lot of pent-up downgrades that will send the stock reeling, not rallying, in the immediate aftermath.<\/p>\n<p>{snip} While I made some good calls in the solar space earlier this year, I essentially give myself a big, fat &#8220;F&#8221; for failing to fully absorb the implications of a coming slowdown in the solar industry. When I noted the high likelihood of a slowdown, I chose to focus on near-term buying opportunities rather than to map fully the potential downside scenarios. {snip} My new price targets on FSLR adopt the analysis from Aaron Chew at Maxim Group. Chew has graciously granted me permission to reference his September 26th upgrade from sell to hold with an estimated trading range from $55-80\/share&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>I realize that <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/289768-first-solar-executives-try-again-to-signal-a-bottom-for-company-shares\" title=\"First Solar Executives Try Again To Signal A Bottom For Company Shares \" target=\"_blank\">FSLR insiders were buying sizable amounts of shares at much higher prices<\/a> in late August, around $90\/share, so it seems that FSLR&#8217;s 1-2 year upside potential should be much higher than Chew&#8217;s upper range. However, I think it makes sense to maintain a muted and low expectation on FSLR, and the rest of the solar industry, until some positive catalysts begin to emerge again. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/300356-solar-warnings-season-begins\" title=\"Solar Warnings Season Begins\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long FSLR shares, calls, and puts; long GTAT shares<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Solar stocks have been in freefall since last peaking in the Spring. There was some lingering hope that demand would pick up in the fourth quarter as companies rushed to take advantage of fading subsidies, &#8230; <a title=\"Solar Warnings Season Begins\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/10\/19\/solar-warnings-season-begins\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,3],"tags":[6,7,793,173,723,16,174,792,791,570],"class_list":["post-7766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-solar-energy","tag-first-solar","tag-fslr","tag-gt-advanced-technology","tag-gt-solar-international","tag-gtat","tag-solar-stocks","tag-solr","tag-specialized-technology-resources","tag-str-holdings","tag-stri"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Solar Warnings Season Begins - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/10\/19\/solar-warnings-season-begins\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Solar Warnings Season Begins - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. 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