{"id":76133,"date":"2025-09-06T22:57:19","date_gmt":"2025-09-07T05:57:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=76133"},"modified":"2025-09-06T22:57:20","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T05:57:20","slug":"tentative-market-celebration-for-slowing-employment-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/09\/06\/tentative-market-celebration-for-slowing-employment-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"A Tentative Market Celebration for Slowing Employment – The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In a flashback to August’s opening trading salvo<\/a>, September trading started with a sharp pullback. The decline fit the standard theme of “professional” traders and investors returning from summer vacations to take profits from a market levitating on low volume vapors. However, sensing redux price action, the market’s persistent buyers jumped right into the dip and created rallies off intraday lows. Buyers continued buying until they “exhausted” themselves celebrating a weak and concerning employment report for August<\/a>. The initial gap higher in the wake of the report came from giddy anticipation of the necessary, and perhaps now substantial, rate cuts required to respond to the slowing employment picture. A fade to close the week has the look of tentative trading ever so slightly acknowledging economic risks to the stock market. Small caps held on to the positive prospects for rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tug of war between relief over rate cuts and concern about a slowing economy will keep playing out as fresh data arrive once the rate-cut cycle begins. Revisions in the jobs report<\/a> revealed the economy actually lost jobs in June. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3%. Accordingly, slowdown anxieties are ramping (just do not look to the stock market for evidence or to Google searchers<\/a>). The last such episode was the summer of 2024 when the Sahm Rule triggered<\/a> and signaled an impending or existing recession. If a recession happens soon without a fresh Sahm Rule trigger, the resulting gap in time would be the longest duration yet between the Sahm Rule trigger and the recession. Given the steady decline in the Sahm Rule since it triggered last year, the odds lean toward no recession…and the Sahm Rule’s first false negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n