{"id":7484,"date":"2011-10-01T02:40:22","date_gmt":"2011-10-01T06:40:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=7484"},"modified":"2011-10-01T02:42:41","modified_gmt":"2011-10-01T06:42:41","slug":"t2108-update-110930","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/10\/01\/t2108-update-110930\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update – September 30, 2011 (Holding Trading Range…Just Barely)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 22%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 43
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nI suppose it is fitting that the market ends its worst quarterly performance since 2008<\/a> near the bottom of a choppy trading range, T2108 scraping at oversold conditions once again, and the VIX<\/a> stubbornly scratching at the top of its recent trading range. On the flip side, bonds reveled in their best quarterly performance since 2008<\/a>. These are all decent conditions for a big first-of-the-month, first-day-of-the-quarter rally. Such a move is probably the only thing that keeps the S&P 500<\/a> from punching through 52-week lows soon. In fact, according to figures compiled by CNBC<\/a>:<\/p>\n

“…when the third quarter sees an official correction, or a 10 percent or more drop, the ensuing quarter is almost always positive.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 for the July-to-September period lost 12 percent heading into Friday’s trading, which saw the market add to its losses. History, then, suggests that the following quarter will post a gain of 7.2 percent. The trend has held up eight out of nine times.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If this history holds water yet again, the buying oversold conditions on T2108 could generate some very good profits in the fourth quarter. <\/p>\n

Note well that leading into Friday’s sell-off, the market had a very mixed performance on Thursday. T2108 surged from 23% to 28% while the S&P 500 only increased 0.8%. At the same time, many high profile tech stocks sold off (for example, see NFLX<\/a> and BIDU<\/a>). The NASDAQ was down 0.4%<\/a>. I would have declared that Thursday printed a bullish divergence and anticipated a rally on Friday. This is a good reminder that these indicators are not perfect and risk must always be managed carefully.<\/p>\n

Once again, I am keeping a close eye on cyclical stocks. The market continues to react very poorly to bad news from cyclical companies. Ingersoll-Rand (IR) warned on earnings Friday morning<\/a> and lost 12% on the close. The only positive is that buyers bought the stock at the new intra-day 52-week lows and prevented the stock from closing at new 52-week lows.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Ingersoll-Rand<\/a>
Ingersoll-Rand avoids closing at new 2011 lows following an earnings warning<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center>
\n<\/p>\n

In sympathy, Caterpillar (CAT) experienced mostly selling pressure on the day. It now sits exactly on top of its 52-week closing low.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Caterpillar<\/a>
Caterpillar rests right on the ledge<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: charts from FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center>
\n<\/p>\n

Finally, many steel stocks continue to flirt with their March, 2009 lows. For example, see the chart for U.S. Steel (X)<\/a> as it hovers about 10% above those climactic lows (click link).<\/p>\n

If the market manages to rally on Monday (or next week), either it will occur on the top of a large gap up or only after another wave of sellers gets washed out with new 52-week lows on the S&P 500. Either way, brace yourselves..!<\/p>\n


\nCharts below are the latest<\/strong> snapshots of T2108 (and the S&P 500)<\/em>
\nRefresh browser if the charts are the same as the last T2108 update.
\n<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*T2108 charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO, X<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 22% VIX Status: 43 General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold Commentary I suppose it is fitting that the … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[64,63,761,762,65,226,1597,193,194],"class_list":["post-7484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-ingersoll-rand-ltd","tag-ir","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-u-s-steel","tag-x"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update - September 30, 2011 (Holding Trading Range...Just Barely) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/10\/01\/t2108-update-110930\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update - September 30, 2011 (Holding Trading Range...Just Barely) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag.) T2108 Status: 22% VIX Status: 43 General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold Commentary I suppose it is fitting that the ... 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