{"id":74809,"date":"2025-06-22T00:50:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-22T07:50:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=74809"},"modified":"2025-06-22T00:57:27","modified_gmt":"2025-06-22T07:57:27","slug":"a-nervous-calm-in-the-stock-market-the-market-breadth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/06\/22\/a-nervous-calm-in-the-stock-market-the-market-breadth\/","title":{"rendered":"A Nervous Calm in the Stock Market &#8211; The Market Breadth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock market last week was full of a nervous calm. Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed to muffle the market&#8217;s mood after <a href=\"https:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/2025\/06\/19\/jerome-powell-meaningful-inflation-is-coming\/\">warning that meaningful inflation is yet to come<\/a> as a result of tariffs. The expiration of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/04\/09\/tariff-blink-an-oversold-market-rejoices-the-market-breadth\/\">the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs<\/a> looms over the market with just one major deal on the books (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cy8gxp7dvepo\">the U.K. deal was recently confirmed but it seems incomplete<\/a>) and a likely extension of the pause. Moreover, almost every week the news drops small trade war headlines that the market has learned to ignore given the sharp rebound from March and April&#8217;s tariff drama, trauma, and noise. For example, on Friday <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/media-telecom\/us-prepares-action-targeting-allies-chip-plants-china-wsj-reports-2025-06-20\/\">the U.S. reportedly may go after the semiconductor plants that its allies have in China<\/a>. These reports and headlines now mean little unless and until something specific materializes&#8230;while the tariff pause remains in effect anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More importantly, the week ended with the President announcing a 2-week pause on making a decision on bombing Iran&#8217;s nuclear facilities. That pause added to the nervous calm. The very next day, at the time of writing, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2025\/06\/21\/nx-s1-5441127\/iran-us-strike-nuclear-trump\">the U.S. proceeded with a bombing run on Iran<\/a> with plenty of weekend time for financial markets to avoid panicking. If Iran chooses the path of escalation instead of the &#8220;surrender&#8221; that the U.S. wants, all bets are off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Iranian conflict escalates, I will place the war in the context of an expansion of what I still see as an unfolding World War Three. While the surface area of this war remains far more limited than the first two world wars, the participants are almost just as global in scope. Perhaps the perspective and hindsight of history will connect the dots and recognize the pouring of resources and weaponry from major powers to fight other major powers as a world war. Regardless, thank goodness the damage has not been global in scope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Market Indices<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>S&amp;P 500 (SPY)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite bearish signals in market breadth (see below), SPY remains well supported. The index tested support at its 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line), which also coincides with the first close after the November presidential election. A break below the first post-election close will flip me from cautiously bullish to neutral. A breakdown below the even firmer support from the convergence of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (teh red and blue lines respectively), along with the post-election close, would finally force me to get bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SP-500-SPY-1.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) churned throughout the week, hanging above the 20DMA and maintaining key support.\" class=\"wp-image-74795\" title=\"S&amp;P 500 (SPY)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SP-500-SPY-1.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SP-500-SPY-1-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SP-500-SPY-1-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) churned throughout the week, hanging above the 20DMA and maintaining key support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-5e6b19ed wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><mark style=\"background-color:#0693e3\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">Join the One-Twenty Two Mailing List for Free<\/mark><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>NASDAQ (COMPQ)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ mirrored the S&amp;P 500 by testing its 20DMA support. Convergence between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages also creates a similar critical support zone. Also like the S&amp;P 500, the tech laden index fell just short of testing all-time highs, adding to the importance of maintaining current support&#8230;.as well as adding to the nervous calm given the weakening market breadth underlying the failed test.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1509\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQ) falls away from a new high for the year, beginning to test its uptrending 20DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-74796\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2\" title=\"NASDAQ (COMPQ)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-NASDAQ-COMPQ.png 1509w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-NASDAQ-COMPQ-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-NASDAQ-COMPQ-1320x700.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1509px) 100vw, 1509px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The NASDAQ (COMPQ) falls away from a new high for the year, beginning to test its uptrending 20DMA.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I missed IWM&#8217;s test of its 20DMA last Friday, but I bought the third test on Wednesday with a $125 call option expiring in 2 weeks. The ETF of small caps is clinging to this support. A failure will setup an imminent test of 50DMA support.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) harshly confirmed 200DMA resistance, but managed to hold 20DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-74797\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.995249406175772;width:840px;height:auto\" title=\"iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-Russell-2000-ETF-IWM-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) harshly confirmed 200DMA resistance, but managed to hold 20DMA support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading With A Nervous Calm<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AT50<\/strong> (MMFI) = 61.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (first overbought day)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AT200<\/strong> (MMTH) = 41.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>AT50 (MMFI), the percentage of stocks trading above their 50DMAs, closed the week at 61.2%. Since <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/06\/15\/overbought-conditions-end-with-fresh-market-risk-the-market-breadth\/\">ending overbought conditions a week ago<\/a>, my favorite technical indicator has fallen another 3 days out of 4 and sits at a one month low. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">the AT50 trading rules<\/a>, the slip from overbought conditions puts the stock market in a bearish state. However, with the S&amp;P 500 and the NASDAQ remaining well-supportive, I do not want to proactively or preemptively downgrade my short-term trading call from bullish. Instead, I need to see the breakdowns I described above before I change. Layering in economic and geopolitical warfare, all this tension puts ME in a state of nervous calm!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AT200 (MMTH), the percentage of stocks trading above their 200DMAs, held its ground during the week of nervous calm, a positive sign for longer-term market health. However, AT200 remains under a secondary downtrend. A breakout above that next downtrend would reaffirm and strengthen my bullishness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Volatility Index (VIX)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>VIX<\/strong> remained above 20, bouncing in place all week and adding to the week&#8217;s nervous overtones. The VIX behaved like a coiled spring, signaling the market&#8217;s nervousness. I bought a put spread on SPY for a partial hedge.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1510\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-volatility-index-VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) managed to maintain 200DMA support, reflecting market nervousness and elevated risk.\" class=\"wp-image-74798\" title=\"Volatility Index (VIX)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-volatility-index-VIX.png 1510w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-volatility-index-VIX-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-volatility-index-VIX-1320x699.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1510px) 100vw, 1510px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The volatility index (VIX) managed to maintain 200DMA support, reflecting market nervousness and elevated risk.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Equities: Nervous Calm<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>United States Oil Fund (USO)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My bet against USO worked well on Monday but I decided to hold rather than take profits. Surprisingly, oil resumed its upward push. As a result, USO ended the week at its highest point since January. Now the bet against USO feel binary in this nervous calm. If the U.S.&#8217;s attack forces Iran to stand down, USO should collapse. If not, USO could soar all over again as Middle East oil gets ever riskier.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-United-States-Oil-Fund-USO.png\" alt=\"United States Oil Fund (USO) quickly rebounded after starting the week with a steep reversal. USO's retest of multi-year highs is testing the market's nervous calm.\" class=\"wp-image-74804\" title=\"United States Oil Fund (USO)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-United-States-Oil-Fund-USO.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-United-States-Oil-Fund-USO-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-United-States-Oil-Fund-USO-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-United-States-Oil-Fund-USO-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>United States Oil Fund (USO) quickly rebounded after starting the week with a steep reversal. USO&#8217;s retest of multi-year highs is testing the market&#8217;s nervous calm.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><strong>Accenture (ACN)<\/strong><br>All the headlines for ACN earnings looked strong. Yet, ACN plunged 6.9% post-earnings. <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4460305-jefferies-says-accentures-slowdown-in-growth-is-worth-calling-out\">Underlying growth is slowing<\/a>. I had hoped the firm\u2019s private-sector focus would insulate it given the increasing success with generative AI business, but apparently that hope was misplaced. Now I hold on to see whether the April lows hold as support. If not, I have to take <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/06\/17\/individual-stocks-are-rentals-not-soulmates-lessons-from-morgan-stanleys-research-on-drawdowns\/\">the lesson I just wrote about on laggard stocks<\/a> and move on from ACN.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"797\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Accenture-Plc-ACN.png\" alt=\"Accenture Plc (ACN) warned about its consulting business and broke down below its 50DMA after a 6.9% fall, testing the April lows.\" class=\"wp-image-74799\" title=\"Accenture Plc (ACN)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Accenture-Plc-ACN.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Accenture-Plc-ACN-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Accenture-Plc-ACN-1536x760.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Accenture-Plc-ACN-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Accenture Plc (ACN) warned about its consulting business and broke down below its 50DMA after a 6.9% fall, testing the April lows.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Circle Internet Group, Inc (CRCL)<\/strong><br>Stablecoin company CRCL surged 20.4% and is up over 600% since its debut. All I can do is marvel at this run-up. I cannot even consider buying this rocket ship until it tests an important line of support. However, CRCL has run-up so fast that even a pullback to the 20DMA would mark a significant drawdown. For example, if CRCL stayed at the current $240.28 until its first 20DMA line appears, the stock would need to lose 24% to test 20DMA support around $184. The current average price is $137.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/GPaGqYaR\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/GPaGqYaR\/\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Circle Internet Financial (CRCL) surged 20.4%, part of the stable coin company&#8217;s 600%+ gain after its debut. I will not even consider buying the stock before a pullback to test support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I wanted to go into the weekend with more hedges. GLD came to mind. With a light test of 20DMA support, I jumped on a July $320\/$330 call spread. With 50DMA support holding up so well all year, I will happily add to my GLD position on a 50DMA test.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"797\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SPDR-Gold-Trust-GLD.png\" alt=\"SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) retested 20DMA support, falling away from all-time highs; I bought a July $320\u2013$330 call spread betting on renewed macro tensions and technical support.\" class=\"wp-image-74800\" title=\"SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SPDR-Gold-Trust-GLD.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SPDR-Gold-Trust-GLD-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SPDR-Gold-Trust-GLD-1536x760.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-SPDR-Gold-Trust-GLD-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) retested 20DMA support, falling away from all-time highs; I bought a July $320\u2013$330 call spread betting on renewed macro tensions and technical support.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Carvana (CVNA)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Incredibly, a little over two years ago, CVNA looked ready for bankruptcy as it collapsed 34% to $4.40\/share. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Carvana shares plummet after the open as bankruptcy concerns grow\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/mk4t7CNMDHg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Fast-forward to today and CVNA is freshly off a failed attempt to test its all-time high around $373. On June 11, <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/yLmq12jDsUg?list=PLPVLsIDAmoECY1LMffJuCaT4PW9ghAaFz&amp;t=477\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Chanos revealed a new short position in CVNA<\/a> (7:57 mark). The stock fell three straight days from there before rebounding sharply to 20DMA resistance. I decided to put CVNA on my short-list to act as a hedge against my trading bullishness. Clearly, as long as the market remains bullish, CVNA will continue levitating against the fundamentals that supposedly say it should trade a lot lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Jim Chanos on Bull Market, Tesla, Carvana and Michael Saylor\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/yLmq12jDsUg?start=477&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1610\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Carvana-Co-CVNA.png\" alt=\"Carvana Co (CVNA) confirmed lower Bollinger Band support and rebounded to 20DMA resistance; I followed short-seller Chanos with a put spread hedge to offset broader market risk.\" class=\"wp-image-74801\" title=\"Carvana Co (CVNA)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Carvana-Co-CVNA.png 1610w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Carvana-Co-CVNA-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Carvana-Co-CVNA-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Carvana-Co-CVNA-1320x651.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1610px) 100vw, 1610px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Carvana Co (CVNA) confirmed lower Bollinger Band support and rebounded to 20DMA resistance; I followed short-seller Chanos with a put spread hedge to offset broader market risk.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Apple (AAPL)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>AAPL notably out-performed on Friday with a 2.3% gain. While the stock remains below its 50DMA, I noted how the downtrend line has now turned upward. High trading volume (on a triple witching day) suggests to me that AAPL could be close to ending my bearish position against the stock through shares in AAPD.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1609\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png\" alt=\"Apple Inc (AAPL) outperformed the market with a 2.3% gain and a test of 50DMA resistance. My bearish outlook may face its first challenge.\" class=\"wp-image-74802\" title=\"Apple Inc (AAPL)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Apple-Inc-AAPL.png 1609w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Apple-Inc-AAPL-768x380.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Apple-Inc-AAPL-1536x760.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-Apple-Inc-AAPL-1320x653.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1609px) 100vw, 1609px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>Apple Inc (AAPL) outperformed the market with a 2.3% gain and a test of 50DMA resistance. My bearish outlook may face its first challenge.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB)<\/strong><br>Rate sensitive stocks like home builders were boosted by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=PcqJuWFn-B8&amp;list=PLPVLsIDAmoECY1LMffJuCaT4PW9ghAaFz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a CNBC interview with Fed Governor Christopher Waller<\/a> who insisted that the Fed should cut rates next month. He further claimed that tariffs look like they will have little impact on inflation, a direct contradiction to the narrative Powell just told on Wednesday. (Note well that Waller is supposedly on Trump&#8217;s short list to replace Powell next year &#8211; so benign commentary on tariffs is self-serving). ITB gained 2.2% in a rare day of out-performance. However, the downtrend defined by the 50DMA remains well intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Watch CNBC&#039;s full interview with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/PcqJuWFn-B8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-ITB.png\" alt=\"The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) bounced off recent lows with a 2.1% gain. I'm waiting to buy more on a 50DMA breakout with hopes growing for imminent rate cuts.\" class=\"wp-image-74803\" title=\"iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-ITB.png 1612w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-ITB-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-ITB-1536x758.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-iShares-US-Home-Construction-ETF-ITB-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) bounced off recent lows with a 2.1% gain. I&#8217;m waiting to buy more on a 50DMA breakout with hopes growing for imminent rate cuts.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-default\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT50-MMFI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1613\" height=\"794\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT50-MMFI.png\" alt=\"AT50 (MMFI) continued to fall below the overbought line, reinforcing bearish signals in short-term market breadth.\" class=\"wp-image-74805\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9858156028368794\" title=\"AT50 (MMFI)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT50-MMFI.png 1613w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT50-MMFI-768x378.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT50-MMFI-1536x756.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT50-MMFI-1320x650.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1613px) 100vw, 1613px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT50 (MMFI) continued to fall below the overbought line, reinforcing bearish signals in short-term market breadth.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT200-MMTH.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1611\" height=\"796\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT200-MMTH.png\" alt=\"AT200 (MMTH) held steady, signaling long-term stability, but remains below a secondary downtrend that must break to confirm bullish momentum.\" class=\"wp-image-74806\" title=\"AT200 (MMTH)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT200-MMTH.png 1611w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT200-MMTH-768x379.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT200-MMTH-1536x759.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/062025-AT200-MMTH-1320x652.png 1320w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1611px) 100vw, 1611px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong><em>AT200 (MMTH) held steady, signaling long-term stability, but remains below a secondary downtrend that must break to confirm bullish momentum.<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"footnotes\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/subscribe-free\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Subscribe for free<\/a> to get email notifications of future posts!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 50&#8221; (AT50) uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs) to measure breadth in the stock market. Breadth defines the distribution of participation in a rally or sell-off. As a result, AT50 identifies extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Above the 50 is my alternative name for &#8220;MMFI&#8221; which is a symbol TradingView.com and other chart vendors use for this breadth indicator. Learn more about AT50 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">Market Breadth Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or MMTH, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT50 (MMFI) periods<\/strong>: Day #33 over 20%, Day #31 over 30%, Day #26 over 40%, Day #21 over 50%, Day #19 over 60%, Day #5 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for charts unless otherwise noted: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure:<\/strong> long IWM shares and calls, long USO put, long ACN, long GLD call spread, long CVNA put spread, long AAPD, long ITB<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/profile\/drduru.bsky.social\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BlueSky<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/ahan.analytics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: Stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. Candlestick charts use hollow bodies: open candles indicate a close higher than the open, filled candles indicate an open higher than the close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>* Blog notes: this blog was written based on the heavily edited transcript of the following video that includes a live review of the stock charts featured in this post. I used ChatGPT to process the transcript.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"A Nervous Calm for the #stockmarket - The Market Breadth #technicalanalysis\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/omZGbPgsCcY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Commentary The stock market last week was full of a nervous calm. Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed to muffle the market&#8217;s mood after warning that meaningful inflation is yet to come as a result of tariffs. The expiration of the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs looms over the market with just one major &#8230; <a title=\"A Nervous Calm in the Stock Market &#8211; The Market Breadth\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/06\/22\/a-nervous-calm-in-the-stock-market-the-market-breadth\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":74843,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,584,483,1862,199,219,512,1311,511,62,982],"tags":[250,1192,534,2832,3258,2201,3746,1870,200,2218,2663,1206,909,413,65,499,362,1375,538],"class_list":["post-74809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-automotive","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-business-services","category-commodities","category-high-tech","category-resistance","category-software","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-aapl","tag-acn","tag-apple-inc","tag-at50","tag-carvana-co","tag-compq","tag-crcl","tag-cvna","tag-gld","tag-ishares-russell-2000-etf","tag-ishares-u-s-home-construction-etf","tag-itb","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-spdr-gold-trust","tag-spy","tag-united-states-oil-fund","tag-uso"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Nervous Calm in the Stock Market - The Market Breadth - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets tread through a nervous calm as Powell warned of inflation, tariff headlines loomed, and Iran tensions simmered on a decision pause.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/06\/22\/a-nervous-calm-in-the-stock-market-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Nervous Calm in the Stock Market - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets tread through a nervous calm as Powell warned of inflation, tariff headlines loomed, and Iran tensions simmered on a decision pause.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2025\/06\/22\/a-nervous-calm-in-the-stock-market-the-market-breadth\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-06-22T07:50:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-06-22T07:57:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/a-nervous-calm-for-the-stock-market.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1117\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"627\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"A Nervous Calm in the Stock Market - The Market Breadth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Markets tread through a nervous calm as Powell warned of inflation, tariff headlines loomed, and Iran tensions simmered on a decision pause.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/a-nervous-calm-for-the-stock-market.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"12 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/22\\\/a-nervous-calm-in-the-stock-market-the-market-breadth\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/22\\\/a-nervous-calm-in-the-stock-market-the-market-breadth\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"A Nervous Calm in the Stock Market &#8211; 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